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Syst473%20Unit%203%20-%20Structuring%20Decisions

Syst473%20Unit%203%20-%20Structuring%20Decisions - Unit 3...

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Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis - Unit 3 © Paulo C. G. Costa Unit 3: Structuring Decisions Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis 1
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Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis - Unit 3 © Paulo C. G. Costa Outline General Concepts Influence Diagrams Decision Trees Solving Influence Diagrams and Decision Trees 2
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Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis - Unit 3 © Paulo C. G. Costa The Elements of a Decision Objectives and means Alternatives to choose between Uncertainty in Events and Outcomes Consequences of the Decision 3
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Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis - Unit 3 © Paulo C. G. Costa How do we Structure the Problem? 4 Decision Tree Representation Influence Diagram Representation
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Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis - Unit 3 © Paulo C. G. Costa Outline General Concepts Influence Diagrams Decision Trees Solving Influence Diagrams and Decision Trees 5
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Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis - Unit 3 © Paulo C. G. Costa Influence Diagrams Chance Decision Value Chance (Outcome) Deterministic Chance (outcome) Information Arc Probabilistic Relevance Influence Functional Relevance Three Levels of Specification Courtesy of Dr. Dan Maxwell 6
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Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis - Unit 3 © Paulo C. G. Costa A Simple Influence Diagram Figure 3.5 7
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Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis - Unit 3 © Paulo C. G. Costa Showing Influence with Arrows 8
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Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis - Unit 3 © Paulo C. G. Costa Objectives Hierarchy into Influence Diagram Maximize Overall Satisfaction Invest in Computer Industry Return on Investment 9 Invest? Return on Investment Computer Industry Growth Venture Succeeds or Fails Overall Satisfaction
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Syst 473 - Decision and Risk Analysis - Unit 3 © Paulo C. G. Costa Multiple Objectives Note: The Oval Shape can be Used as well as the Diamond Shape for the Final Satisfaction Node 10
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