Assignment 5 - Due 14th April, 2009 (Hand in Q 1, 4, 8, 9)

Assignment 5 - Due 14th April, 2009 (Hand in Q 1, 4, 8, 9)...

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Unformatted text preview: THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS AND ACTUARIAL SCIENCE STAT 0302 Business Statistics Assignment 5 (Do all. Hand in solutions to the four starred questions on or before 14.4.09) *1. The Autical Corporation, a producer of botical gears, had the following sales volumes ($m) reported quarterly: Quarter Sales, ( Y ) Quarter Sales, ( Y ) 2005 Q.1 9.8 2007 Q.1 14.5 Q.2 15.3 Q.2 22.3 Q.3 13.5 Q.3 18.5 Q.4 10.4 Q.4 13.4 2006 Q.1 12.7 2008 Q.1 15.5 Q.2 19.6 Q.2 24.9 Q.3 15.4 Q.3 19.6 Q.4 13.2 Q.4 14.1 (a) Find the four seasonal factors. (b) Fit a straight line trend to the (deseasonalized) data. (c) Predict the sales volumes for the four quarters of 2009. 2. The table below shows the numbers of issues sold (in 1000) of a bimonthly magazine over a three-year period: Year Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2006 5.5 6.8 8.0 7.4 5.9 6.0 2007 6.2 7.5 8.2 8.5 6.8 8.0 2008 8.0 9.2 10.3 9.4 7.6 8.7 (a) Find the bimonthly seasonal indexes. (b) Determine a trend line T = a + bx , taking January, 2006 as x = 1. (c) Forecast the sales of the coming six issues in 2009. 3. A company reports its profits (in $m) three times a year, each profit covering a term of four months. Past figures are as follows: 2005 2006 2007 2008 1st 2nd 3rd 1st 2nd 3rd 1st 2nd 3rd 1st 2nd 3rd 9.6 14.4 12.0 11.4 16.8 13.8 12.6 18.6 15.9 14.1 20.7 17.4 (a) Find the seasonal factors for the three terms. (b) Fit a trend line T = a + bx to the data, taking the first term of 2005 as x = 1. (c) Estimate the profits of the three terms of 2009, based on a multiplicative model without the (long-term) cyclic component. S&AS: STAT 0302 Business Statistics 2 *4. A manufacturer has produced a large batch of fan-belts. From past experience he knows that his machine capability is σ = 0.7 cm which represents the standard deviation of fan-belt lengths in any large batch produced. To estimate the mean length ( μ cm) of the batch, the manufacturer randomly selected 20 items and obtained these measurements (in cm): 52 . 5 , 53 . , 52 . 3 , 52 . 4 , 52 . 7 , 51 . 7 , 52 . 1 , 52 . 8 , 53 . 1 , 54 . , 52 . 9 , 52 . 3 , 51 . 6 , 52 . 7 , 52 . 6 , 53 . , 52 . 3 , 52 . 1 , 51 . 7 , 53 ....
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Assignment 5 - Due 14th April, 2009 (Hand in Q 1, 4, 8, 9)...

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