1Climate change:What does the future hold?2007Diffenbaugh et al. 2008. Geophysical Research LettersSummary•Average temperaturesincreased 0.8°C over last 100 yrs.•Current warminggreater than at least last 2,000 years, and probably 10,000 years.•Climate modelsmust incorporate natural and anthropogenic drivers to account for warming in 1900s.•Mainstream model predictions of ∆T by the year 2100 range from +1.8 to +4°C.•Temperature and precipitationeffect will vary spatially.•Variance in climatewill increase.•Melting of the ice sheetswill influence climate change and sea level rise.Biotic Changes• Ecological– Due to shifting niches:•Changes in phenology, competition, predation, mutualisms– Due to changes in nutrient flows:•Changes in niches, disturbance regimes– Due to changes in disturbance regimes per se• Evolutionary– Requires appropriate genetic variance
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