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Climate change module

Climate change module - Christopher Christie Shifting...

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1 Climate change: What does the future hold? 2007 Diffenbaugh et al. 2008. Geophysical Research Letters Summary Average temperatures increased 0.8°C over last 100 yrs. Current warming greater than at least last 2,000 years, and probably 10,000 years. Climate models must incorporate natural and anthropogenic drivers to account for warming in 1900s. Mainstream model predictions of T by the year 2100 range from +1.8 to +4°C. Temperature and precipitation effect will vary spatially. Variance in climate will increase. Melting of the ice sheets will influence climate change and sea level rise. Biotic Changes • Ecological – Due to shifting niches: Changes in phenology, competition, predation, mutualisms – Due to changes in nutrient flows: Changes in niches, disturbance regimes – Due to changes in disturbance regimes per se • Evolutionary – Requires appropriate genetic variance
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2 Root et al. 2003 Nature 421:57-60 Phenological changes Loarie et al. 2008 Christopher Christie
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