311_Session10_Chen

311_Session10_Chen - OperationsManagement...

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Operations Management Session 10:  Probability Concepts
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 Session 10 Operations Management 2 Today’s Class Game codes due. Please go to http://usc.responsive.net/lt/usc/start.html to  register. Course code:  usc. Individual code:  what you purchased from the bookstore. Today: Probability Review
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 Session 10 Operations Management 3 Blackjack You have a 9 and 5, what is the chance of winning  if you hit? 
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 Session 10 Operations Management 4 Random Experiment Random Experiment: An experiment in which the precise  outcome is not known ahead of time. The set of possibilities  however is known Examples:   Demand for blue blazers next month The value of a rolled die The waiting times of customers in the bank The waiting time for an ATT service person Tomorrow’s closing value of the NASDAQ The temperature in Los Angeles tomorrow
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 Session 10 Operations Management 5 Random Variable A random variable is the numerical value determined by the  outcome of a random experiment   A random variable can be discrete (i.e. takes on only a finite  set of values) or continuous   Examples:  The value on a rolled die is a discrete random variable The demand for blazers is a discrete random variable   The birth weight of a newborn baby is a continuous variable random variable
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 Session 10 Operations Management 6 Sample Space Sample space is the list of possible outcomes of an  experiment Examples: For a die, the sample space S is: {1,2,3,4,5,6} For the demand for blue blazers it is all possible realizations of the  demand. For example: {1000,1001,1002…,2000}  The waiting time in the bank is any number greater than or equal to 0.   This is a continuous random variable The waiting time for a bus at a bus stop is any number between 0  and 30 minutes.  This is a continuous random variable that is  bounded
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 Session 10 Operations Management 7 Event An event is a set of one or more outcomes of a  random experiment Examples:   Getting less than 5 by rolling the die: This event occurs if  the values observed are {1,2,3, or 4} The demand is smaller or equal to 1500. This event occurs  if the values of the demand are {1000, 1001, … 1500} The waiting time for a bus at the bus stop exceeds 10.   This event occurs if the wait time is in the interval (10, 30)
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 Session 10 Operations Management 8 Probability The probability of an event is a number between 0  and 1 1 means that the event will always happen  0 means that the event will never happen The probability of an event A is denoted as either  P(A)  or  Prob(A)
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This note was uploaded on 11/09/2009 for the course BUAD 311 taught by Professor Vaitsos during the Fall '07 term at USC.

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311_Session10_Chen - OperationsManagement...

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