Voting for Autocracy - Beatriz Magaloni Voting for...

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Beatriz Magaloni Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico (forthcoming, Cambridge University Press) Stanford University magaloni@stanford.edu
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Chapter 1: Equilibrium party hegemony All autocratic regimes face two dilemmas: first, they must deter potential opponents, and second, they must induce some form of political loyalty from the masses. How does a hegemonic party manage to solve elite disputes and keep the party united? Why would voters support an autocratic regime? To answer these questions, I present in this chapter my theory of hegemonic party survival, which will be assessed with systematic empirical evidence in subsequent chapters of this book. 2. Elite divisions and the golden years of the PRI The PRI experienced a series of splits during its history, the most important of which were those of Juan Andreu Almazán in 1940, 1 Ezequiel Padilla in 1946 2 , Miguel Henríquez Guzmán in 1952, 3 and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas in 1988. These splits occurred because these prominent politicians objected to the party's presidential nominee. The 1988 split was different because it resulted in the formation of a new political party, the PRD. 1Almazán headed the opposition against the PNR’s nomination, Manuel Avila Camacho, in 1940. Almazán had support from some sectors in the army and from those who were against the party's shift towards the left during the Lázaro Cárdenas years (Medina, 1978). He officially obtained close to 6% of the vote. 2Padilla was nominated by the PDM (Partido Democrático Mexicano). He had belonged to the ruling party, holding an important cabinet position during the Avila Camacho presidency. He officially obtained 19% of the vote. 3 Henríquez Guzmán organized a strong opposition against the ruling party. He claimed to represent the "real" principles of the Mexican Revolution, which according to him and his supporters, had been betrayed during the Alemán presidency. Henríquez Guzmán was at first supported by Lázaro Cárdenas himself. However, when Alemán named Ruiz Cortínez as the presidential nominee, Lázaro Cárdenas publicly rallied with the PRI. Henríquez Guzmán nonetheless continued his campaign through the Popular Party Front. After the PRI won the presidency, these politicians came back to the party when they where offered positions in the state. Henríquez Guzmán officially obtained 16% of the vote.
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To understand how a hegemonic party manages to deter party splits and the factors that account for elite divisiveness, consider the following decision theoretic problem of a politician who is evaluating whether to remain loyal to the hegemonic party or to split. The expected utility of joining the hegemonic party is given by the probability of winning under that party’s label, P I, multiplied by the likelihood of obtaining that party’s nomination, N I, times the utility of office O, minus the costs incurred in running a campaign under the incumbent’s label C I .
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This note was uploaded on 11/10/2009 for the course EC EC001 taught by Professor Hill during the Spring '09 term at Instituto Superior de Economia y Administracion de.

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Voting for Autocracy - Beatriz Magaloni Voting for...

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