c1t4&f8 - THSF Squared Error twelve months earlier...

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Date Error Aug-05 110 Sep-05 99 Oct-05 105 Nov-05 86 Dec-05 87 Jan-06 89 Feb-06 88 Mar-06 108 Apr-06 100 May-06 102 Jun-06 98 Jul-06 83 Aug-06 88 110 -22 484 Sep-06 80 99 -19 361 Oct-06 74 105 -31 961 MSE = 441.25 Nov-06 71 86 -15 225 Dec-06 71 87 -16 256 RMSE = 21.01 Jan-07 66 89 -23 529 Feb-07 68 88 -20 400 Mar-07 80 108 -28 784 Apr-07 83 100 -17 289 May-07 80 102 -22 484 Jun-07 77 98 -21 441 Jul-07 74 83 -9 81 Aug-07 88 Sep-07 80 Oct-07 74 Nov-07 71 Dec-07 71 Jan-08 66 Feb-08 68 Mar-08 80 Apr-08 83 May-08 80 Jun-08 77 Jul-08 74 Table 1 - 4 Total Houses Sold (THS) with Naïve Forecast. In this example the naïve forecast is modified to be the actual sales Total Houses Sold(000) THS Naïve Forecast(-12)
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Unformatted text preview: THSF Squared Error twelve months earlier. THSF = THS (t - 12) Calculations MSE 441.25 RMSE 21.01 Fig. 1-8 Total Houses Sold (THS) with Naïve Forecast. In this example the naïve forecast is modified to be the actual sales twelve months earlier. THSF = THS (t - 12) Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 20 40 60 80 100 120 Total Houses Sold(000) THS Naïve Forecast(-12) THSF...
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