c3Gap - Date GapSales(000) Mar-85 Jun-85 Sep-85 Dec-85...

Info iconThis preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: Date GapSales(000) Mar-85 Jun-85 Sep-85 Dec-85 Mar-86 Jun-86 Sep-86 Dec-86 Mar-87 Jun-87 Sep-87 Dec-87 Mar-88 Jun-88 Sep-88 Dec-88 Mar-89 Jun-89 Sep-89 Dec-89 Mar-90 Jun-90 Sep-90 Dec-90 Mar-91 Jun-91 Sep-91 Dec-91 Mar-92 Jun-92 Sep-92 Dec-92 Mar-93 Jun-93 Sep-93 Dec-93 Mar-94 Jun-94 Sep-94 Dec-94 Mar-95 Jun-95 Sep-95 Dec-95 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 105,715 120,136 181,669 239,813 159,980 164,760 224,800 298,469 211,060 217,753 273,616 359,592 241,348 264,328 322,752 423,669 309,925 325,939 405,601 545,131 402,368 404,996 501,690 624,726 490,300 523,056 702,052 803,485 588,864 614,114 827,222 930,209 643,580 693,192 898,677 1,060,230 751,670 773,131 988,346 1,209,790 848,688 868,514 1,155,930 1,522,120 1,113,150 1,120,340 1,383,000 1,667,900 1,231,186 1,345,221 1,765,939 2,165,479 Gap Inc. Corporate Fiscal Calendar: Quarter 1 = February, March, April Quarter 2 = May, June, July Quarter 3 = August, September, October Quarter 4 = November, December, January Quarters here are defined by the "middle" month in the corporate calendar. http://www.gapinc.com/financmedia/financials.htm Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98 Mar-99 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 1,719,712 1,904,970 2,399,900 3,029,900 2,277,734 2,453,339 3,045,386 3,858,939 2,731,990 2,947,714 3,414,668 4,579,088 3,179,656 3,245,219 3,333,373 4,089,625 2,890,840 3,268,309 3,644,956 4,650,604 3,352,771 3,685,299 3,929,456 4,886,264 3,667,565 3,720,789 3,980,150 4,898,000 3,626,000 3,716,000 3,860,000 4,821,000 3,441,000 3,716,000 3,856,000 4,930,000 3,558,000 GapSales(000) 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 GapSales(000) 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Dec-85 Jun-87 Dec-88 Jun-90 Dec-91 Jun-93 Dec-94 Jun-96 Dec-97 Jun-99 Dec-00 Jun-02 Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Mar-85 Sep-86 Mar-88 Sep-89 Mar-91 Sep-92 Mar-94 Sep-95 Mar-97 Sep-98 Mar-00 Sep-01 Mar-03 Sep-04 Mar-06 Tracking Report Dates Mar-1985 Jun-1985 Sep-1985 Dec-1985 Mar-1986 Jun-1986 Sep-1986 Dec-1986 Mar-1987 Jun-1987 Sep-1987 Dec-1987 Mar-1988 Jun-1988 Sep-1988 Dec-1988 Mar-1989 Jun-1989 Sep-1989 Dec-1989 Mar-1990 Jun-1990 Sep-1990 Dec-1990 Mar-1991 Jun-1991 Sep-1991 Dec-1991 Mar-1992 Jun-1992 Sep-1992 Dec-1992 Mar-1993 Jun-1993 Sep-1993 Dec-1993 Mar-1994 Jun-1994 Sep-1994 Dec-1994 Mar-1995 Jun-1995 Sep-1995 Dec-1995 Mar-1996 Jun-1996 Sep-1996 Dec-1996 Mar-1997 Jun-1997 Sep-1997 Dec-1997 6,000,000.00 Mar-1998 Jun-1998 Sep-1998 Dec-1998 Mar-1999 Jun-1999 Sep-1999 Dec-1999 Mar-2000 Jun-2000 Sep-2000 Dec-2000 Mar-2001 Jun-2001 Sep-2001 Dec-2001 Mar-2002 Jun-2002 Sep-2002 Dec-2002 Mar-2003 Jun-2003 Sep-2003 Dec-2003 Mar-2004 Jun-2004 Sep-2004 Dec-2004 Mar-2005 5,000,000.00 Jun-2005 Sep-2005 Dec-2005 Mar-2006 Jun-2006 Sep-2006 Dec-2006 Mar-2007 4,000,000.00 Actual 105,715.00 Forecast Fitted Values Lower Limit 119,799.30 Upper Limit 120,136.00 115,586.38 181,669.00 168,497.37 239,813.00 250,648.43 159,980.00 161,047.36 164,760.00 172,827.66 224,800.00 232,799.89 298,469.00 297,676.19 211,060.00 194,288.68 217,753.00 215,914.15 273,616.00 301,734.63 359,592.00 369,488.91 241,348.00 238,351.54 264,328.00 240,951.47 322,752.00 341,599.20 423,669.00 438,408.38 309,925.00 283,741.21 325,939.00 311,776.13 405,601.00 407,599.82 545,131.00 549,149.93 402,368.00 379,498.46 404,996.00 404,744.62 501,690.00 504,607.37 624,726.00 677,640.61 490,300.00 449,325.62 523,056.00 477,155.32 702,052.00 636,345.82 803,485.00 913,038.24 588,864.00 626,510.10 614,114.00 595,505.96 827,222.00 749,829.84 930,209.00 986,903.18 643,580.00 721,238.88 693,192.00 673,939.44 898,677.00 854,528.19 1,060,230.00 1,018,238.61 751,670.00 780,388.34 773,131.00 810,922.13 988,346.00 980,367.45 1,209,790.00 1,121,252.99 848,688.00 857,107.01 868,514.00 905,618.63 1,155,930.00 1,121,340.87 1,522,120.00 1,336,724.85 1,113,150.00 1,046,369.35 1,120,340.00 1,173,979.89 1,383,000.00 1,511,067.35 1,667,900.00 1,714,057.62 1,231,186.00 1,154,249.12 1,345,221.00 1,231,074.00 1,765,939.00 1,718,165.86 2,165,479.00 2,188,443.72 1,719,712.00 1,562,576.48 1,904,970.00 1,751,499.76 2,399,900.00 2,432,584.86 3,029,900.00 3,006,912.98 2,277,734.00 2,271,668.15 2,453,339.00 2,373,920.29 3,045,386.00 3,063,198.11 3,858,939.00 3,808,243.55 2,731,990.00 2,869,788.46 2,947,714.00 2,890,063.66 3,414,668.00 3,608,505.42 4,579,088.00 4,288,770.30 3,179,656.00 3,256,499.25 3,245,219.00 3,394,086.25 3,333,373.00 3,906,321.41 4,089,625.00 4,374,754.10 2,890,840.00 2,809,739.66 3,268,309.00 2,899,710.87 3,644,956.00 3,557,835.03 4,650,604.00 4,724,241.50 3,352,771.00 3,323,312.61 3,685,299.00 3,553,498.52 3,929,456.00 4,024,563.98 4,886,264.00 5,103,129.18 3,667,565.00 3,533,031.55 3,720,789.00 3,884,948.92 3,980,150.00 4,037,755.55 4,898,000.00 5,065,771.73 3,626,000.00 3,588,177.35 3,716,000.00 3,725,851.43 3,860,000.00 3,990,697.54 4,821,000.00 4,864,025.98 3,441,000.00 3,532,808.04 3,532,808.04 3,519,701.32 3,667,936.31 3,371,466.32 3,696,441.80 3,922,874.50 3,470,009.10 4,616,218.34 4,924,794.10 4,307,642.59 3,338,697.05 3,730,889.98 2,946,504.11 GapSales(000) 3,000,000.00 2,000,000.00 1,000,000.00 0.00 Sep-1989 Sep-1995 Sep-1998 Mar-1988 Mar-1997 Mar-1985 Dec-1985 Dec-1988 Dec-1991 Dec-1994 Mar-2003 Sep-1986 Jun-1987 Jun-1993 Jun-1996 Jun-1999 Mar-1991 Mar-1994 Mar-2000 Jun-2002 Dec-2003 Sep-1992 Dec-1997 Dec-2000 Sep-2001 Jun-1990 Actual Forecast Fitted Values Upper Limit Lower Limit Forecast --Holt WintersSelected Date Jun-2006 Sep-2006 Dec-2006 Mar-2007 Total Avg Max Min Quarterly 3,519,701.32 3,696,441.80 4,616,218.34 3,338,697.05 15,171,058.51 3,792,764.63 4,616,218.34 3,338,697.05 Forecast Annual 5% - 95% Upper Limit 3,667,936.31 3,922,874.50 4,924,794.10 3,730,889.98 4,061,623.72 4,924,794.10 3,667,936.31 5% - 95% Lower Limit 3,371,466.32 3,470,009.10 4,307,642.59 2,946,504.11 3,523,905.53 4,307,642.59 2,946,504.11 11,832,361.46 11,832,361.46 11,832,361.46 11,832,361.46 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of The data has a standard deviation of The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 4.72% 1,492,540.82 99.40% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis Series:GapSales(000) Dates Mar-1985 Jun-1985 Sep-1985 Dec-1985 Mar-1986 Jun-1986 Sep-1986 Dec-1986 Mar-1987 Jun-1987 Sep-1987 Original Data 105,715.00 120,136.00 181,669.00 239,813.00 159,980.00 164,760.00 224,800.00 298,469.00 211,060.00 217,753.00 273,616.00 Fitted Data 119,799.30 115,586.38 168,497.37 250,648.43 161,047.36 172,827.66 232,799.89 297,676.19 194,288.68 215,914.15 301,734.63 Error Series % Change -14,084.30 4,549.62 13.64% 13,171.63 51.22% -10,835.43 32.01% -1,067.36 -33.29% -8,067.66 2.99% -7,999.89 36.44% 792.81 32.77% 16,771.32 -29.29% 1,838.85 3.17% -28,118.63 25.65% Forecast % Change -3.52% 45.78% 48.76% -35.75% 7.31% 34.70% 27.87% -34.73% 11.13% 39.75% Dec-1987 Mar-1988 Jun-1988 Sep-1988 Dec-1988 Mar-1989 Jun-1989 Sep-1989 Dec-1989 Mar-1990 Jun-1990 Sep-1990 Dec-1990 Mar-1991 Jun-1991 Sep-1991 Dec-1991 Mar-1992 Jun-1992 Sep-1992 Dec-1992 Mar-1993 Jun-1993 Sep-1993 Dec-1993 Mar-1994 Jun-1994 Sep-1994 Dec-1994 Mar-1995 Jun-1995 Sep-1995 Dec-1995 Mar-1996 Jun-1996 Sep-1996 Dec-1996 Mar-1997 Jun-1997 Sep-1997 Dec-1997 Mar-1998 Jun-1998 Sep-1998 Dec-1998 Mar-1999 Jun-1999 Sep-1999 Dec-1999 Mar-2000 Jun-2000 Sep-2000 Dec-2000 Mar-2001 Jun-2001 Sep-2001 Dec-2001 Mar-2002 Jun-2002 Sep-2002 Dec-2002 Mar-2003 Jun-2003 Sep-2003 Dec-2003 359,592.00 241,348.00 264,328.00 322,752.00 423,669.00 309,925.00 325,939.00 405,601.00 545,131.00 402,368.00 404,996.00 501,690.00 624,726.00 490,300.00 523,056.00 702,052.00 803,485.00 588,864.00 614,114.00 827,222.00 930,209.00 643,580.00 693,192.00 898,677.00 1,060,230.00 751,670.00 773,131.00 988,346.00 1,209,790.00 848,688.00 868,514.00 1,155,930.00 1,522,120.00 1,113,150.00 1,120,340.00 1,383,000.00 1,667,900.00 1,231,186.00 1,345,221.00 1,765,939.00 2,165,479.00 1,719,712.00 1,904,970.00 2,399,900.00 3,029,900.00 2,277,734.00 2,453,339.00 3,045,386.00 3,858,939.00 2,731,990.00 2,947,714.00 3,414,668.00 4,579,088.00 3,179,656.00 3,245,219.00 3,333,373.00 4,089,625.00 2,890,840.00 3,268,309.00 3,644,956.00 4,650,604.00 3,352,771.00 3,685,299.00 3,929,456.00 4,886,264.00 369,488.91 238,351.54 240,951.47 341,599.20 438,408.38 283,741.21 311,776.13 407,599.82 549,149.93 379,498.46 404,744.62 504,607.37 677,640.61 449,325.62 477,155.32 636,345.82 913,038.24 626,510.10 595,505.96 749,829.84 986,903.18 721,238.88 673,939.44 854,528.19 1,018,238.61 780,388.34 810,922.13 980,367.45 1,121,252.99 857,107.01 905,618.63 1,121,340.87 1,336,724.85 1,046,369.35 1,173,979.89 1,511,067.35 1,714,057.62 1,154,249.12 1,231,074.00 1,718,165.86 2,188,443.72 1,562,576.48 1,751,499.76 2,432,584.86 3,006,912.98 2,271,668.15 2,373,920.29 3,063,198.11 3,808,243.55 2,869,788.46 2,890,063.66 3,608,505.42 4,288,770.30 3,256,499.25 3,394,086.25 3,906,321.41 4,374,754.10 2,809,739.66 2,899,710.87 3,557,835.03 4,724,241.50 3,323,312.61 3,553,498.52 4,024,563.98 5,103,129.18 -9,896.91 2,996.46 23,376.53 -18,847.20 -14,739.38 26,183.79 14,162.87 -1,998.82 -4,018.93 22,869.54 251.38 -2,917.37 -52,914.61 40,974.38 45,900.68 65,706.18 -109,553.24 -37,646.10 18,608.04 77,392.16 -56,694.18 -77,658.88 19,252.56 44,148.81 41,991.39 -28,718.34 -37,791.13 7,978.55 88,537.01 -8,419.01 -37,104.63 34,589.13 185,395.15 66,780.65 -53,639.89 -128,067.35 -46,157.62 76,936.88 114,147.00 47,773.14 -22,964.72 157,135.52 153,470.24 -32,684.86 22,987.02 6,065.85 79,418.71 -17,812.11 50,695.45 -137,798.46 57,650.34 -193,837.42 290,317.70 -76,843.25 -148,867.25 -572,948.41 -285,129.10 81,100.34 368,598.13 87,120.97 -73,637.50 29,458.39 131,800.48 -95,107.98 -216,865.18 31.42% -32.88% 9.52% 22.10% 31.27% -26.85% 5.17% 24.44% 34.40% -26.19% 0.65% 23.88% 24.52% -21.52% 6.68% 34.22% 14.45% -26.71% 4.29% 34.70% 12.45% -30.81% 7.71% 29.64% 17.98% -29.10% 2.86% 27.84% 22.41% -29.85% 2.34% 33.09% 31.68% -26.87% 0.65% 23.44% 20.60% -26.18% 9.26% 31.28% 22.62% -20.59% 10.77% 25.98% 26.25% -24.82% 7.71% 24.13% 26.71% -29.20% 7.90% 15.84% 34.10% -30.56% 2.06% 2.72% 22.69% -29.31% 13.06% 11.52% 27.59% -27.91% 9.92% 6.63% 24.35% 22.45% -35.49% 1.09% 41.77% 28.34% -35.28% 9.88% 30.73% 34.73% -30.89% 6.65% 24.67% 34.29% -33.69% 6.19% 33.36% 43.48% -31.38% -4.95% 25.91% 31.62% -26.92% -6.56% 26.80% 19.16% -23.36% 3.91% 20.90% 14.37% -23.56% 5.66% 23.82% 19.21% -21.72% 12.20% 28.71% 13.43% -32.66% 6.66% 39.57% 27.37% -28.60% 12.09% 38.89% 23.61% -24.45% 4.50% 29.04% 24.32% -24.64% 0.71% 24.86% 18.85% -24.07% 4.22% 15.09% 11.99% -35.77% 3.20% 22.70% 32.78% -29.65% 6.93% 13.26% 26.80% Mar-2004 Jun-2004 Sep-2004 Dec-2004 Mar-2005 Jun-2005 Sep-2005 Dec-2005 Mar-2006 Avg Max Min StDev Var Median Audit Trail - Statistics 3,667,565.00 3,720,789.00 3,980,150.00 4,898,000.00 3,626,000.00 3,716,000.00 3,860,000.00 4,821,000.00 3,441,000.00 1,767,828.67 4,898,000.00 105,715.00 1,492,540.82 ### 1,120,340.00 3,533,031.55 134,533.45 3,884,948.92 -164,159.92 4,037,755.55 -57,605.55 5,065,771.73 -167,771.73 3,588,177.35 37,822.65 3,725,851.43 -9,851.43 3,990,697.54 -130,697.54 4,864,025.98 -43,025.98 3,532,808.04 -91,808.04 1,774,241.87 -6,413.19 5,103,129.18 368,598.13 115,586.38 -572,948.41 1,517,498.45 115,249.08 ### 13,282,350,167.67 1,121,252.99 -1,067.36 -24.94% 1.45% 6.97% 23.06% -25.97% 2.48% 3.88% 24.90% -28.62% 6.86% 51.22% -33.29% 22.67% 5.14% 9.72% -30.77% 9.96% 3.93% 25.46% -29.17% 3.84% 7.11% 21.88% -27.37% 7.18% 48.76% -35.77% 24.46% 5.98% 11.56% Accuracy Measures AIC BIC Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Adjusted R-Square Root Mean Square Error Theil Method Statistics Method Selected Level Seasonal Trend Decomposition type Seasonal Indexes Index 1 Index 2 Index 3 Index 4 ForecastX Configuration Parameters Value 2,227.80 2,235.13 4.72% 99.40% 99.39% 114,748.49 0.27 Value Holt Winters 0.68 1.00 0.25 Multiplicative Value 0.84 0.80 1.03 1.33 Forecast Statistics Durbin Watson (4) Mean Standard Deviation Ljung-Box Item Value Data range selected [c3gap new.xlsx]GapSales, T, Seasonal'!$A$1:$B$86 Time scale for data Quarterly Periods to forecast 4.00 Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated No Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values No Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeroes No Remove Trailing Zeroes No Use Holdback Evaluation No Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal No Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Holt Winters Report Details Run Date: 3/4/2008 11:58:59 AM Author: Barry Keating Note: Dec-2003 Mar-2006 Mar-2003 Sep-2004 Jun-1999 Jun-2002 Mar-2000 Jun-2005 mit Cumulative Error -14,084.30 -4,767.34 1,212.32 -1,799.62 -1,653.17 -2,722.25 -3,476.20 -2,942.57 -752.14 -493.04 -3,004.46 Cumulative MAPE 13.32% 7.61% 5.88% 4.69% 3.78% 3.29% 2.89% 2.53% 2.35% 2.12% 2.01% Dec-2006 Dec-2000 Sep-2001 -3,578.83 -3,073.04 -1,183.78 -2,361.34 -3,134.97 -1,410.34 -545.16 -621.67 -791.53 335.19 331.38 190.13 -2,022.57 -302.69 1,474.36 3,853.32 -196.92 -1,488.27 -818.39 1,704.53 -120.43 -2,470.08 -1,831.18 -517.47 663.34 -130.76 -1,121.83 -888.48 1,347.15 1,108.96 199.11 998.88 5,189.70 6,558.39 5,249.73 2,413.20 1,401.30 2,942.85 5,166.93 6,002.35 5,445.29 8,307.37 10,995.57 10,201.38 10,429.69 10,353.14 11,543.92 11,046.36 11,707.18 9,256.27 10,036.82 6,800.72 11,230.67 9,875.69 7,470.49 -1,192.48 -5,368.02 -4,114.85 1,209.62 2,419.64 1,363.29 1,748.15 3,505.62 2,190.77 -691.55 1.87% 1.73% 1.65% 1.57% 1.48% 1.42% 1.36% 1.29% 1.23% 1.18% 1.13% 1.08% 1.05% 1.02% 0.99% 0.97% 0.95% 0.93% 0.90% 0.88% 0.86% 0.84% 0.82% 0.80% 0.78% 0.76% 0.75% 0.73% 0.72% 0.70% 0.68% 0.67% 0.66% 0.65% 0.64% 0.63% 0.62% 0.61% 0.60% 0.59% 0.58% 0.57% 0.56% 0.55% 0.54% 0.53% 0.52% 0.52% 0.51% 0.50% 0.49% 0.49% 0.48% 0.47% 0.47% 0.46% 0.46% 0.45% 0.45% 0.44% 0.44% 0.43% 0.43% 0.42% 0.42% 1,064.62 -1,053.64 -1,769.49 -3,844.51 -3,330.11 -3,409.63 -4,943.22 -5,396.59 -6,413.19 1,184.86 11,707.18 -14,084.30 4,962.29 24,624,330.83 -120.43 0.41% 0.41% 0.40% 0.40% 0.39% 0.39% 0.38% 0.38% 0.37% 1.23% 13.32% 0.37% 1.78% 0.03% 0.67% ast Statistics ard Deviation Value 1.73 1,767,828.67 1,492,540.82 18.87 1,000,000.00 2,000,000.00 3,000,000.00 4,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 0.00 Mar-1985 Dec-1985 Sep-1986 Jun-1987 Mar-1988 Dec-1988 Sep-1989 Jun-1990 Mar-1991 Dec-1991 Sep-1992 Jun-1993 Mar-1994 Dec-1994 Sep-1995 Jun-1996 Mar-1997 Dec-1997 Sep-1998 Jun-1999 Mar-2000 Dec-2000 Sep-2001 Jun-2002 Mar-2003 Dec-2003 Sep-2004 Jun-2005 Actual Forecast Fitted Values GapSales(000) Upper Limit Lower Limit Dec-2000 Sep-2001 Jun-2002 Mar-2003 Dec-2003 Sep-2004 Jun-2005 Mar-2006 Dec-2006 A Sample of the Gap Data in Column Format Date GapSales( 000) Mar-85 Jun-85 Sep-85 Dec-85 Mar-86 Jun-86 Sep-86 Dec-86 Mar-87 Jun-87 Sep-87 Dec-87 Mar-88 Jun-88 Sep-88 Dec-88 Mar-89 Jun-89 Sep-89 Dec-89 Mar-90 Jun-90 Sep-90 Dec-90 105,715 120,136 181,669 239,813 159,980 164,760 224,800 298,469 211,060 217,753 273,616 359,592 241,348 264,328 322,752 423,669 309,925 325,939 405,601 545,131 402,368 404,996 501,690 624,726 The Gap Sales Forecast Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 3,716,000 3,856,000 4,930,000 3,558,000 4015000 3,519,701.32 3,696,441.80 4,616,218.34 3,338,697.05 Holdout Period (2004) Forecast RMSE forecast actual 3,519,701.32 3,716,000 3,696,441.80 3,856,000 4,616,218.34 4,930,000 3,338,697.05 3,558,000 RMSE= 229,426 (At-Ft) 196,298.68 159,558.20 313,781.66 219,302.95 (At-Ft)2 ### ### ### ### ...
View Full Document

Ask a homework question - tutors are online