c3f18 - Date Jan-92 Feb-92 Mar-92 Apr-92 May-92 Jun-92...

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Unformatted text preview: Date Jan-92 Feb-92 Mar-92 Apr-92 May-92 Jun-92 Jul-92 Aug-92 Sep-92 Oct-92 Nov-92 Dec-92 Jan-93 Feb-93 Mar-93 Apr-93 May-93 Jun-93 Jul-93 Aug-93 Sep-93 Oct-93 Nov-93 Dec-93 Jan-94 Feb-94 Mar-94 Apr-94 May-94 Jun-94 Jul-94 Aug-94 Sep-94 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Jewelry Sales ($Millions ) 803 1030 922 977 1182 1104 1046 1100 1043 1132 1376 3469 802 1002 902 1007 1246 1270 1278 1270 1191 1213 1561 3829 904 1191 1058 1171 1367 1257 1224 1320 1246 1323 1731 4204 914 1223 1138 1204 1603 1388 1259 1393 1325 1371 1867 4467 1043 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec-98 Jan-99 Feb-99 Mar-99 Apr-99 May-99 Jun-99 Jul-99 Aug-99 Sep-99 Oct-99 Nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 1439 1316 1359 1768 1408 1375 1477 1332 1462 1843 4495 1041 1411 1183 1267 1597 1341 1322 1359 1344 1406 1813 4694 1119 1513 1238 1362 1756 1527 1415 1466 1372 1506 1923 5233 1163 1662 1402 1468 1877 1635 1596 1617 1530 1653 2179 6075 1253 1991 1510 1570 2139 1783 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 Nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 1643 1770 1705 1681 2174 5769 1331 1973 1580 1545 1992 1629 1530 1679 1394 1586 2152 5337 1304 2004 1612 1626 2120 1667 1554 1746 1503 1662 2208 5810 1361 2019 1477 1616 2071 1711 1677 1761 1629 1759 2291 6171 1461 2344 1764 1826 2226 1882 1787 1794 1726 1845 2399 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 6489 1458 2394 1773 1909 2243 1953 1754 1940 1743 1878 2454 6717 Jewelry Sales ($Millions) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 Jewelry Sales ($Millions) 3000 2000 1000 0 Jun-92 Apr-93 Feb-94 Dec-94 Oct-95 Aug-96 Jun-97 Apr-98 Feb-99 Dec-99 Oct-00 Aug-01 Jun-02 Apr-03 Feb-04 Dec-04 Oct-05 Jan-92 Nov-92 Sep-93 Jul-94 May-95 Mar-96 Jan-97 Nov-97 Sep-98 Jul-99 May-00 Mar-01 Jan-02 Nov-02 Sep-03 Jul-04 May-05 Tracking Report Dates Jan-1992 Feb-1992 Mar-1992 Apr-1992 May-1992 Jun-1992 Jul-1992 Aug-1992 Sep-1992 Oct-1992 Nov-1992 Dec-1992 Jan-1993 Feb-1993 Mar-1993 Apr-1993 May-1993 Jun-1993 Jul-1993 Aug-1993 Sep-1993 Oct-1993 Nov-1993 Dec-1993 Jan-1994 Feb-1994 Mar-1994 Apr-1994 May-1994 Jun-1994 Jul-1994 Aug-1994 Sep-1994 Oct-1994 Nov-1994 Dec-1994 Jan-1995 Feb-1995 Mar-1995 Apr-1995 May-1995 Jun-1995 Jul-1995 Aug-1995 Sep-1995 Oct-1995 Nov-1995 Dec-1995 Jan-1996 Feb-1996 Mar-1996 Apr-1996 9,000.00 May-1996 Jun-1996 Jul-1996 Aug-1996 Sep-1996 Oct-1996 Nov-1996 Dec-1996 Jan-1997 Feb-1997 Mar-1997 Apr-1997 May-1997 Jun-1997 Jul-1997 Aug-1997 Sep-1997 Oct-1997 Nov-1997 Dec-1997 Jan-1998 Feb-1998 8,000.00 Mar-1998 Apr-1998 May-1998 Jun-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Oct-1998 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Jan-1999 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Jun-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Oct-1999 Nov-1999 7,000.00 Dec-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Apr-2000 May-2000 Jun-2000 Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Dec-2000 Jan-2001 Feb-2001 Mar-2001 Apr-2001 May-2001 Jun-2001 Jul-2001 Aug-2001 Sep-2001 6,000.00 Oct-2001 Nov-2001 Dec-2001 Jan-2002 Feb-2002 Mar-2002 Apr-2002 May-2002 Jun-2002 Jul-2002 Aug-2002 Sep-2002 Oct-2002 Nov-2002 Dec-2002 Jan-2003 Feb-2003 Mar-2003 Apr-2003 May-2003 Jun-2003 5,000.00 Jul-2003 Aug-2003 Sep-2003 Oct-2003 Nov-2003 Dec-2003 Jan-2004 Feb-2004 Mar-2004 Apr-2004 May-2004 Jun-2004 Jul-2004 Aug-2004 Sep-2004 Oct-2004 Nov-2004 Dec-2004 Jan-2005 Feb-2005 Mar-2005 Apr-2005 4,000.00 May-2005 Jun-2005 Jul-2005 Aug-2005 Sep-2005 Oct-2005 Nov-2005 Dec-2005 Jan-2006 Feb-2006 Mar-2006 Apr-2006 May-2006 Jun-2006 Jul-2006 Aug-2006 Sep-2006 Oct-2006 Nov-2006 Dec-2006 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 Actual Fitted Values Lower Limit 803.00 802.61 1,030.00 Forecast 1,017.55 Upper Limit 922.00 913.93 977.00 988.18 1,182.00 1,206.48 1,104.00 1,151.01 1,046.00 1,097.38 1,100.00 1,119.80 1,043.00 1,039.29 1,132.00 1,098.48 1,376.00 1,346.06 3,469.00 3,301.96 802.00 747.41 1,002.00 977.85 902.00 882.59 1,007.00 950.17 1,246.00 1,187.25 1,270.00 1,154.10 1,278.00 1,163.41 1,270.00 1,293.15 1,191.00 1,244.27 1,213.00 1,345.37 1,561.00 1,600.72 3,829.00 3,985.10 904.00 896.40 1,191.00 1,125.22 1,058.00 1,031.46 1,171.00 1,143.91 1,367.00 1,412.95 1,257.00 1,379.54 1,224.00 1,301.96 1,320.00 1,272.20 1,246.00 1,211.91 1,323.00 1,280.91 1,731.00 1,661.19 4,204.00 4,187.63 914.00 985.73 1,223.00 1,241.12 1,138.00 1,087.77 1,204.00 1,208.70 1,603.00 1,425.10 1,388.00 1,410.68 1,259.00 1,396.53 1,393.00 1,436.94 1,325.00 1,335.01 1,371.00 1,398.98 1,867.00 1,789.53 4,467.00 4,401.32 1,043.00 988.56 1,439.00 1,347.83 1,316.00 1,264.38 1,359.00 1,371.54 1,768.00 1,746.32 1,408.00 1,546.13 1,375.00 1,416.13 1,477.00 1,558.19 1,332.00 1,459.02 1,462.00 1,475.20 1,843.00 1,959.82 4,495.00 4,558.38 1,041.00 1,029.00 1,411.00 1,378.91 1,183.00 1,241.02 1,267.00 1,251.22 1,597.00 1,599.01 1,341.00 1,300.90 1,322.00 1,271.85 1,359.00 1,397.90 1,344.00 1,280.85 1,406.00 1,419.59 1,813.00 1,827.06 4,694.00 4,455.96 1,119.00 1,048.74 1,513.00 1,451.05 1,238.00 1,270.55 1,362.00 1,351.09 1,756.00 1,727.47 1,527.00 1,455.83 1,415.00 1,454.96 1,466.00 1,518.00 1,372.00 1,464.88 1,506.00 1,519.53 1,923.00 1,963.80 5,233.00 4,954.33 1,163.00 1,178.58 1,662.00 1,567.69 1,402.00 1,324.19 1,468.00 1,479.20 1,877.00 1,896.27 1,635.00 1,616.92 1,596.00 1,526.17 1,617.00 1,625.78 1,530.00 1,560.01 1,653.00 1,707.86 2,179.00 2,186.52 6,075.00 5,835.80 1,253.00 1,333.45 1,991.00 1,829.53 1,510.00 1,563.20 1,570.00 1,632.75 2,139.00 2,066.47 1,783.00 1,810.04 1,643.00 1,727.69 1,770.00 1,726.28 1,705.00 1,651.91 1,681.00 1,820.05 2,174.00 2,331.26 5,769.00 6,221.67 1,331.00 1,275.89 1,973.00 1,959.42 1,580.00 1,505.90 1,545.00 1,598.56 1,992.00 2,104.81 1,629.00 1,723.90 1,530.00 1,571.54 1,679.00 1,635.77 1,394.00 1,554.46 1,586.00 1,508.83 2,152.00 1,997.58 5,337.00 5,525.09 1,304.00 1,227.19 2,004.00 1,852.07 1,612.00 1,494.22 1,626.00 1,527.67 2,120.00 2,060.85 1,667.00 1,748.62 1,554.00 1,646.31 1,746.00 1,770.83 1,503.00 1,544.70 1,662.00 1,710.89 2,208.00 2,262.51 5,810.00 5,706.66 1,361.00 1,372.02 2,019.00 2,054.47 1,477.00 1,602.65 1,616.00 1,534.82 2,071.00 2,002.41 1,711.00 1,610.69 1,677.00 1,551.68 1,761.00 1,790.19 1,629.00 1,551.19 1,759.00 1,766.89 2,291.00 2,376.16 6,171.00 6,162.78 1,461.00 1,458.99 2,344.00 2,191.11 1,764.00 1,704.20 1,826.00 1,858.57 2,226.00 2,375.66 1,882.00 1,897.56 1,787.00 1,814.27 1,794.00 1,920.93 1,726.00 1,698.99 1,845.00 1,846.53 2,399.00 2,427.67 6,489.00 6,467.58 1,458.00 1,527.20 2,394.00 2,338.88 1,773.00 1,746.31 1,909.00 1,819.99 2,243.00 2,295.16 1,953.00 1,915.09 1,754.00 1,835.73 1,940.00 1,859.10 1,743.00 1,792.43 1,878.00 1,903.15 2,454.00 2,474.47 6,717.00 6,656.44 6,656.44 1,527.78 1,660.41 1,395.14 2,478.83 2,670.45 2,287.21 1,830.15 2,083.33 1,576.98 1,935.88 2,251.69 1,620.07 2,300.70 2,679.68 1,921.71 1,980.95 2,423.42 1,538.49 1,811.27 2,317.41 1,305.12 1,960.74 2,530.69 1,390.79 1,784.99 2,418.83 1,151.14 1,927.07 2,624.87 1,229.26 2,523.25 3,285.07 1,761.44 6,878.70 7,704.56 6,052.84 Jewelry Sales ($Millions) Sep-1993 Jul-1994 Jul-1999 Oct-2000 Jun-1992 Feb-1994 Jan-2002 Jun-2002 May-1995 Nov-1992 Nov-1997 Dec-1999 Nov-2002 Feb-2004 Apr-1993 Jul-2004 May-2000 Actual Forecast Fitted Values Upper Limit Lower Limit Forecast --Holt WintersSelected Date Jan-2006 Feb-2006 Mar-2006 Apr-2006 May-2006 Jun-2006 Jul-2006 Aug-2006 Sep-2006 Oct-2006 Nov-2006 Dec-2006 Total Avg Max Min Monthly 1,527.78 2,478.83 1,830.15 1,935.88 2,300.70 1,980.95 1,811.27 1,960.74 1,784.99 1,927.07 2,523.25 6,878.70 28,940.30 2,411.69 6,878.70 1,527.78 Forecast Quarterly Annual 5% - 95% Upper Limit 1,660.41 2,670.45 2,083.33 2,251.69 2,679.68 2,423.42 2,317.41 2,530.69 2,418.83 2,624.87 3,285.07 7,704.56 2,887.53 7,704.56 1,660.41 5% - 95% Lower Limit 1,395.14 2,287.21 1,576.98 1,620.07 1,921.71 1,538.49 1,305.12 1,390.79 1,151.14 1,229.26 1,761.44 6,052.84 1,935.85 6,052.84 1,151.14 5,836.76 6,217.53 5,556.99 11,329.02 7,235.07 11,329.02 5,556.99 28,940.30 28,940.30 28,940.30 28,940.30 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of The data has a standard deviation of The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 3.67% 1,108.06 99.38% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis Series:Jewelry Sales ($Millions) Dates Jan-1992 Feb-1992 Original Data 803.00 1,030.00 Fitted Data 802.61 1,017.55 Error 0.39 12.45 Series % Change 28.27% Forecast % Change 26.78% Dec-2004 Mar-1996 Dec-1994 Sep-2003 Oct-1995 Jan-1992 Mar-2001 Aug-1996 Jan-1997 Jun-1997 Sep-1998 Feb-1999 Aug-2001 Apr-2003 Apr-1998 Mar-1992 Apr-1992 May-1992 Jun-1992 Jul-1992 Aug-1992 Sep-1992 Oct-1992 Nov-1992 Dec-1992 Jan-1993 Feb-1993 Mar-1993 Apr-1993 May-1993 Jun-1993 Jul-1993 Aug-1993 Sep-1993 Oct-1993 Nov-1993 Dec-1993 Jan-1994 Feb-1994 Mar-1994 Apr-1994 May-1994 Jun-1994 Jul-1994 Aug-1994 Sep-1994 Oct-1994 Nov-1994 Dec-1994 Jan-1995 Feb-1995 Mar-1995 Apr-1995 May-1995 Jun-1995 Jul-1995 Aug-1995 Sep-1995 Oct-1995 Nov-1995 Dec-1995 Jan-1996 Feb-1996 Mar-1996 Apr-1996 May-1996 Jun-1996 Jul-1996 Aug-1996 Sep-1996 Oct-1996 Nov-1996 Dec-1996 Jan-1997 Feb-1997 Mar-1997 Apr-1997 May-1997 Jun-1997 Jul-1997 922.00 977.00 1,182.00 1,104.00 1,046.00 1,100.00 1,043.00 1,132.00 1,376.00 3,469.00 802.00 1,002.00 902.00 1,007.00 1,246.00 1,270.00 1,278.00 1,270.00 1,191.00 1,213.00 1,561.00 3,829.00 904.00 1,191.00 1,058.00 1,171.00 1,367.00 1,257.00 1,224.00 1,320.00 1,246.00 1,323.00 1,731.00 4,204.00 914.00 1,223.00 1,138.00 1,204.00 1,603.00 1,388.00 1,259.00 1,393.00 1,325.00 1,371.00 1,867.00 4,467.00 1,043.00 1,439.00 1,316.00 1,359.00 1,768.00 1,408.00 1,375.00 1,477.00 1,332.00 1,462.00 1,843.00 4,495.00 1,041.00 1,411.00 1,183.00 1,267.00 1,597.00 1,341.00 1,322.00 913.93 988.18 1,206.48 1,151.01 1,097.38 1,119.80 1,039.29 1,098.48 1,346.06 3,301.96 747.41 977.85 882.59 950.17 1,187.25 1,154.10 1,163.41 1,293.15 1,244.27 1,345.37 1,600.72 3,985.10 896.40 1,125.22 1,031.46 1,143.91 1,412.95 1,379.54 1,301.96 1,272.20 1,211.91 1,280.91 1,661.19 4,187.63 985.73 1,241.12 1,087.77 1,208.70 1,425.10 1,410.68 1,396.53 1,436.94 1,335.01 1,398.98 1,789.53 4,401.32 988.56 1,347.83 1,264.38 1,371.54 1,746.32 1,546.13 1,416.13 1,558.19 1,459.02 1,475.20 1,959.82 4,558.38 1,029.00 1,378.91 1,241.02 1,251.22 1,599.01 1,300.90 1,271.85 8.07 -11.18 -24.48 -47.01 -51.38 -19.80 3.71 33.52 29.94 167.04 54.59 24.15 19.41 56.83 58.75 115.90 114.59 -23.15 -53.27 -132.37 -39.72 -156.10 7.60 65.78 26.54 27.09 -45.95 -122.54 -77.96 47.80 34.09 42.09 69.81 16.37 -71.73 -18.12 50.23 -4.70 177.90 -22.68 -137.53 -43.94 -10.01 -27.98 77.47 65.68 54.44 91.17 51.62 -12.54 21.68 -138.13 -41.13 -81.19 -127.02 -13.20 -116.82 -63.38 12.00 32.09 -58.02 15.78 -2.01 40.10 50.15 -10.49% 5.97% 20.98% -6.60% -5.25% 5.16% -5.18% 8.53% 21.55% 152.11% -76.88% 24.94% -9.98% 11.64% 23.73% 1.93% 0.63% -0.63% -6.22% 1.85% 28.69% 145.29% -76.39% 31.75% -11.17% 10.68% 16.74% -8.05% -2.63% 7.84% -5.61% 6.18% 30.84% 142.87% -78.26% 33.81% -6.95% 5.80% 33.14% -13.41% -9.29% 10.64% -4.88% 3.47% 36.18% 139.26% -76.65% 37.97% -8.55% 3.27% 30.10% -20.36% -2.34% 7.42% -9.82% 9.76% 26.06% 143.90% -76.84% 35.54% -16.16% 7.10% 26.05% -16.03% -1.42% -10.18% 8.12% 22.09% -4.60% -4.66% 2.04% -7.19% 5.70% 22.54% 145.31% -77.36% 30.83% -9.74% 7.66% 24.95% -2.79% 0.81% 11.15% -3.78% 8.13% 18.98% 148.96% -77.51% 25.53% -8.33% 10.90% 23.52% -2.36% -5.62% -2.29% -4.74% 5.69% 29.69% 152.09% -76.46% 25.91% -12.36% 11.12% 17.90% -1.01% -1.00% 2.89% -7.09% 4.79% 27.92% 145.95% -77.54% 36.34% -6.19% 8.48% 27.33% -11.46% -8.41% 10.03% -6.36% 1.11% 32.85% 132.59% -77.43% 34.01% -10.00% 0.82% 27.80% -18.64% -2.23% Aug-1997 Sep-1997 Oct-1997 Nov-1997 Dec-1997 Jan-1998 Feb-1998 Mar-1998 Apr-1998 May-1998 Jun-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Oct-1998 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Jan-1999 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Jun-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Oct-1999 Nov-1999 Dec-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Apr-2000 May-2000 Jun-2000 Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Dec-2000 Jan-2001 Feb-2001 Mar-2001 Apr-2001 May-2001 Jun-2001 Jul-2001 Aug-2001 Sep-2001 Oct-2001 Nov-2001 Dec-2001 Jan-2002 Feb-2002 Mar-2002 Apr-2002 May-2002 Jun-2002 Jul-2002 Aug-2002 Sep-2002 Oct-2002 Nov-2002 Dec-2002 1,359.00 1,344.00 1,406.00 1,813.00 4,694.00 1,119.00 1,513.00 1,238.00 1,362.00 1,756.00 1,527.00 1,415.00 1,466.00 1,372.00 1,506.00 1,923.00 5,233.00 1,163.00 1,662.00 1,402.00 1,468.00 1,877.00 1,635.00 1,596.00 1,617.00 1,530.00 1,653.00 2,179.00 6,075.00 1,253.00 1,991.00 1,510.00 1,570.00 2,139.00 1,783.00 1,643.00 1,770.00 1,705.00 1,681.00 2,174.00 5,769.00 1,331.00 1,973.00 1,580.00 1,545.00 1,992.00 1,629.00 1,530.00 1,679.00 1,394.00 1,586.00 2,152.00 5,337.00 1,304.00 2,004.00 1,612.00 1,626.00 2,120.00 1,667.00 1,554.00 1,746.00 1,503.00 1,662.00 2,208.00 5,810.00 1,397.90 1,280.85 1,419.59 1,827.06 4,455.96 1,048.74 1,451.05 1,270.55 1,351.09 1,727.47 1,455.83 1,454.96 1,518.00 1,464.88 1,519.53 1,963.80 4,954.33 1,178.58 1,567.69 1,324.19 1,479.20 1,896.27 1,616.92 1,526.17 1,625.78 1,560.01 1,707.86 2,186.52 5,835.80 1,333.45 1,829.53 1,563.20 1,632.75 2,066.47 1,810.04 1,727.69 1,726.28 1,651.91 1,820.05 2,331.26 6,221.67 1,275.89 1,959.42 1,505.90 1,598.56 2,104.81 1,723.90 1,571.54 1,635.77 1,554.46 1,508.83 1,997.58 5,525.09 1,227.19 1,852.07 1,494.22 1,527.67 2,060.85 1,748.62 1,646.31 1,770.83 1,544.70 1,710.89 2,262.51 5,706.66 -38.90 63.15 -13.59 -14.06 238.04 70.26 61.95 -32.55 10.91 28.53 71.17 -39.96 -52.00 -92.88 -13.53 -40.80 278.67 -15.58 94.31 77.81 -11.20 -19.27 18.08 69.83 -8.78 -30.01 -54.86 -7.52 239.20 -80.45 161.47 -53.20 -62.75 72.53 -27.04 -84.69 43.72 53.09 -139.05 -157.26 -452.67 55.11 13.58 74.10 -53.56 -112.81 -94.90 -41.54 43.23 -160.46 77.17 154.42 -188.09 76.81 151.93 117.78 98.33 59.15 -81.62 -92.31 -24.83 -41.70 -48.89 -54.51 103.34 2.80% -1.10% 4.61% 28.95% 158.91% -76.16% 35.21% -18.18% 10.02% 28.93% -13.04% -7.33% 3.60% -6.41% 9.77% 27.69% 172.13% -77.78% 42.91% -15.64% 4.71% 27.86% -12.89% -2.39% 1.32% -5.38% 8.04% 31.82% 178.80% -79.37% 58.90% -24.16% 3.97% 36.24% -16.64% -7.85% 7.73% -3.67% -1.41% 29.33% 165.36% -76.93% 48.23% -19.92% -2.22% 28.93% -18.22% -6.08% 9.74% -16.97% 13.77% 35.69% 148.00% -75.57% 53.68% -19.56% 0.87% 30.38% -21.37% -6.78% 12.36% -13.92% 10.58% 32.85% 163.13% 9.91% -8.37% 10.83% 28.70% 143.89% -76.46% 38.36% -12.44% 6.34% 27.86% -15.72% -0.06% 4.33% -3.50% 3.73% 29.24% 152.28% -76.21% 33.02% -15.53% 11.71% 28.20% -14.73% -5.61% 6.53% -4.05% 9.48% 28.03% 166.90% -77.15% 37.20% -14.56% 4.45% 26.56% -12.41% -4.55% -0.08% -4.31% 10.18% 28.09% 166.88% -79.49% 53.57% -23.15% 6.15% 31.67% -18.10% -8.84% 4.09% -4.97% -2.94% 32.39% 176.59% -77.79% 50.92% -19.32% 2.24% 34.90% -15.15% -5.85% 7.56% -12.77% 10.76% 32.24% 152.23% Jan-2003 Feb-2003 Mar-2003 Apr-2003 May-2003 Jun-2003 Jul-2003 Aug-2003 Sep-2003 Oct-2003 Nov-2003 Dec-2003 Jan-2004 Feb-2004 Mar-2004 Apr-2004 May-2004 Jun-2004 Jul-2004 Aug-2004 Sep-2004 Oct-2004 Nov-2004 Dec-2004 Jan-2005 Feb-2005 Mar-2005 Apr-2005 May-2005 Jun-2005 Jul-2005 Aug-2005 Sep-2005 Oct-2005 Nov-2005 Dec-2005 Avg Max Min StDev Var Median Audit Trail - Statistics 1,361.00 2,019.00 1,477.00 1,616.00 2,071.00 1,711.00 1,677.00 1,761.00 1,629.00 1,759.00 2,291.00 6,171.00 1,461.00 2,344.00 1,764.00 1,826.00 2,226.00 1,882.00 1,787.00 1,794.00 1,726.00 1,845.00 2,399.00 6,489.00 1,458.00 2,394.00 1,773.00 1,909.00 2,243.00 1,953.00 1,754.00 1,940.00 1,743.00 1,878.00 2,454.00 6,717.00 1,839.99 6,717.00 802.00 1,108.06 1,227,798.81 1,557.50 1,372.02 2,054.47 1,602.65 1,534.82 2,002.41 1,610.69 1,551.68 1,790.19 1,551.19 1,766.89 2,376.16 6,162.78 1,458.99 2,191.11 1,704.20 1,858.57 2,375.66 1,897.56 1,814.27 1,920.93 1,698.99 1,846.53 2,427.67 6,467.58 1,527.20 2,338.88 1,746.31 1,819.99 2,295.16 1,915.09 1,835.73 1,859.10 1,792.43 1,903.15 2,474.47 6,656.44 1,838.68 6,656.44 747.41 1,104.83 1,220,658.64 1,551.43 -11.02 -35.47 -125.65 81.18 68.59 100.31 125.32 -29.19 77.81 -7.89 -85.16 8.22 2.01 152.89 59.80 -32.57 -149.66 -15.56 -27.27 -126.93 27.01 -1.53 -28.67 21.42 -69.20 55.12 26.69 89.01 -52.16 37.91 -81.73 80.90 -49.43 -25.15 -20.47 60.56 1.32 278.67 -452.67 87.27 7,616.21 -3.35 -76.57% 48.35% -26.84% 9.41% 28.16% -17.38% -1.99% 5.01% -7.50% 7.98% 30.24% 169.36% -76.32% 60.44% -24.74% 3.51% 21.91% -15.45% -5.05% 0.39% -3.79% 6.89% 30.03% 170.49% -77.53% 64.20% -25.94% 7.67% 17.50% -12.93% -10.19% 10.60% -10.15% 7.75% 30.67% 173.72% 13.68% 178.80% -79.37% 52.86% 27.95% 4.71% -75.96% 49.74% -21.99% -4.23% 30.47% -19.56% -3.66% 15.37% -13.35% 13.91% 34.48% 159.36% -76.33% 50.18% -22.22% 9.06% 27.82% -20.12% -4.39% 5.88% -11.55% 8.68% 31.47% 166.41% -76.39% 53.15% -25.34% 4.22% 26.11% -16.56% -4.14% 1.27% -3.59% 6.18% 30.02% 169.00% 13.35% 176.59% -79.49% 51.69% 26.72% 4.45% Accuracy Measures AIC BIC Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Adjusted R-Square Root Mean Square Error Theil Method Statistics Method Selected Level Seasonal Trend Decomposition type Seasonal Indexes Index 1 Index 2 Index 3 Value 1,983.39 1,992.76 3.67% 99.38% 99.37% 87.02 0.10 Value Holt Winters 0.31 0.86 0.16 Multiplicative Value 0.61 0.77 0.70 Forecast Statistics Durbin Watson (12) Mean Standard Deviation Ljung-Box Index 4 Index 5 Index 6 Index 7 Index 8 Index 9 Index 10 Index 11 Index 12 ForecastX Configuration Parameters 0.75 0.92 0.89 0.86 0.90 0.85 0.91 1.11 2.72 Item Value Data range selected [c3f18 new.xls]Jewelry Sales 92 to 05'!$A$1:$B$169 Time scale for data Monthly Periods to forecast 12.00 Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated No Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values No Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeroes No Remove Trailing Zeroes No Use Holdback Evaluation No Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal No Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Holt Winters Report Details Run Date: 3/4/2008 9:58:50 AM Author: Barry Keating Note: Aug-2001 s) Jan-2002 Jun-2002 Nov-2002 Apr-2003 Sep-2003 Feb-2004 Jul-2004 Dec-2004 May-2005 Oct-2005 Mar-2006 Aug-2006 mit Cumulative Error 0.39 6.42 Cumulative MAPE 0.05% 0.33% 6.97 2.43 -2.95 -10.30 -16.17 -16.62 -14.36 -9.57 -5.98 8.44 11.99 12.86 13.29 16.01 18.53 23.94 28.71 26.12 22.34 15.30 12.91 5.87 5.94 8.24 8.92 9.57 7.65 3.31 0.69 2.16 3.13 4.28 6.15 6.43 4.32 3.73 4.92 4.68 8.91 8.15 4.77 3.66 3.36 2.67 4.27 5.54 6.54 8.24 9.09 8.67 8.92 6.19 5.33 3.79 1.49 1.24 -0.76 -1.81 -1.58 -1.04 -1.94 -1.66 -1.67 -1.04 -0.27 0.31% 0.31% 0.33% 0.39% 0.44% 0.41% 0.37% 0.36% 0.35% 0.35% 0.36% 0.35% 0.34% 0.34% 0.33% 0.34% 0.35% 0.34% 0.33% 0.34% 0.33% 0.32% 0.31% 0.31% 0.30% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.28% 0.28% 0.27% 0.27% 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 0.25% 0.25% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.23% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.21% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.18% 0.18% 0.18% 0.18% 0.17% -0.84 0.09 -0.11 -0.31 3.01 3.93 4.71 4.21 4.30 4.62 5.47 4.89 4.18 2.99 2.78 2.26 5.55 5.30 6.34 7.16 6.95 6.65 6.78 7.47 7.30 6.90 6.24 6.09 8.52 7.61 9.18 8.55 7.83 8.47 8.12 7.22 7.57 8.01 6.62 5.09 0.85 1.35 1.46 2.11 1.62 0.60 -0.23 -0.59 -0.22 -1.58 -0.92 0.39 -1.18 -0.54 0.71 1.66 2.44 2.90 2.23 1.48 1.28 0.94 0.56 0.14 0.92 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.83 0.56 -0.37 0.22 0.72 1.45 2.34 2.11 2.65 2.57 1.96 2.00 2.00 3.04 3.42 3.18 2.15 2.04 1.84 1.00 1.17 1.15 0.96 1.09 0.64 0.98 1.15 1.69 1.36 1.59 1.07 1.56 1.25 1.09 0.96 1.32 3.69 28.71 -16.62 5.89 34.72 2.66 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.11% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.18% 0.44% 0.05% 0.09% 0.00% 0.15% ast Statistics n Watson (12) ard Deviation Value 2.04 1,839.99 1,108.06 7.53 Dates Jan-1992 Feb-1992 Mar-1992 Apr-1992 May-1992 Jun-1992 Jul-1992 Aug-1992 Sep-1992 Oct-1992 Nov-1992 Dec-1992 Jan-1993 Feb-1993 Mar-1993 Apr-1993 May-1993 Jun-1993 Jul-1993 Aug-1993 Sep-1993 Oct-1993 Nov-1993 Dec-1993 Jan-1994 Feb-1994 Mar-1994 Apr-1994 May-1994 Jun-1994 Jul-1994 Aug-1994 Sep-1994 Oct-1994 Nov-1994 Dec-1994 Jan-1995 Feb-1995 Mar-1995 Apr-1995 May-1995 Jun-1995 Jul-1995 Aug-1995 Sep-1995 Oct-1995 Nov-1995 Dec-1995 Jan-1996 Feb-1996 Mar-1996 Apr-1996 May-1996 Jun-1996 Original Data Fitted Data 803.00 802.61 1,030.00 922.00 977.00 1,182.00 1,104.00 1,046.00 1,100.00 1,043.00 1,132.00 1,376.00 3,469.00 802.00 1,002.00 902.00 1,007.00 1,246.00 1,270.00 1,278.00 1,270.00 1,191.00 1,213.00 1,561.00 3,829.00 904.00 1,191.00 1,058.00 1,171.00 1,367.00 1,257.00 1,224.00 1,320.00 1,246.00 1,323.00 1,731.00 4,204.00 914.00 1,223.00 1,138.00 1,204.00 1,603.00 1,388.00 1,259.00 1,393.00 1,325.00 1,371.00 1,867.00 4,467.00 1,043.00 1,439.00 1,316.00 1,359.00 1,768.00 1,408.00 1,017.55 913.93 988.18 1,206.48 1,151.01 1,097.38 1,119.80 1,039.29 1,098.48 1,346.06 3,301.96 747.41 977.85 882.59 950.17 1,187.25 1,154.10 1,163.41 1,293.15 1,244.27 1,345.37 1,600.72 3,985.10 896.40 1,125.22 1,031.46 1,143.91 1,412.95 1,379.54 1,301.96 1,272.20 1,211.91 1,280.91 1,661.19 4,187.63 985.73 1,241.12 1,087.77 1,208.70 1,425.10 1,410.68 1,396.53 1,436.94 1,335.01 1,398.98 1,789.53 4,401.32 988.56 1,347.83 1,264.38 1,371.54 1,746.32 1,546.13 9,000.00 8,000.00 7,000.00 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 Jan-1992 Jun-1992 Sep-1993 Feb-1994 Jun-1997 Sep-1998 Jul-1994 Nov-1992 Dec-1994 May-1995 Nov-1997 Jul-1999 May-2000 Oct-1995 Feb-1999 Mar-1996 Aug-1996 Oct-2000 Jan-1997 Dec-1999 Mar-2001 Apr-1993 Apr-1998 Jewelry Sales ($Million Actual Forecast Fitted Values Upper Limit Lower Jul-1996 Aug-1996 Sep-1996 Oct-1996 Nov-1996 Dec-1996 Jan-1997 Feb-1997 Mar-1997 Apr-1997 May-1997 Jun-1997 Jul-1997 Aug-1997 Sep-1997 Oct-1997 Nov-1997 Dec-1997 Jan-1998 Feb-1998 Mar-1998 Apr-1998 May-1998 Jun-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Oct-1998 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Jan-1999 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Jun-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Oct-1999 Nov-1999 Dec-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Apr-2000 May-2000 Jun-2000 Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Dec-2000 Jan-2001 Feb-2001 1,375.00 1,477.00 1,332.00 1,462.00 1,843.00 4,495.00 1,041.00 1,411.00 1,183.00 1,267.00 1,597.00 1,341.00 1,322.00 1,359.00 1,344.00 1,406.00 1,813.00 4,694.00 1,119.00 1,513.00 1,238.00 1,362.00 1,756.00 1,527.00 1,415.00 1,466.00 1,372.00 1,506.00 1,923.00 5,233.00 1,163.00 1,662.00 1,402.00 1,468.00 1,877.00 1,635.00 1,596.00 1,617.00 1,530.00 1,653.00 2,179.00 6,075.00 1,253.00 1,991.00 1,510.00 1,570.00 2,139.00 1,783.00 1,643.00 1,770.00 1,705.00 1,681.00 2,174.00 5,769.00 1,331.00 1,973.00 1,416.13 1,558.19 1,459.02 1,475.20 1,959.82 4,558.38 1,029.00 1,378.91 1,241.02 1,251.22 1,599.01 1,300.90 1,271.85 1,397.90 1,280.85 1,419.59 1,827.06 4,455.96 1,048.74 1,451.05 1,270.55 1,351.09 1,727.47 1,455.83 1,454.96 1,518.00 1,464.88 1,519.53 1,963.80 4,954.33 1,178.58 1,567.69 1,324.19 1,479.20 1,896.27 1,616.92 1,526.17 1,625.78 1,560.01 1,707.86 2,186.52 5,835.80 1,333.45 1,829.53 1,563.20 1,632.75 2,066.47 1,810.04 1,727.69 1,726.28 1,651.91 1,820.05 2,331.26 6,221.67 1,275.89 1,959.42 Mar-2001 Apr-2001 May-2001 Jun-2001 Jul-2001 Aug-2001 Sep-2001 Oct-2001 Nov-2001 Dec-2001 Jan-2002 Feb-2002 Mar-2002 Apr-2002 May-2002 Jun-2002 Jul-2002 Aug-2002 Sep-2002 Oct-2002 Nov-2002 Dec-2002 Jan-2003 Feb-2003 Mar-2003 Apr-2003 May-2003 Jun-2003 Jul-2003 Aug-2003 Sep-2003 Oct-2003 Nov-2003 Dec-2003 Jan-2004 Feb-2004 Mar-2004 Apr-2004 May-2004 Jun-2004 Jul-2004 Aug-2004 Sep-2004 Oct-2004 Nov-2004 Dec-2004 Jan-2005 Feb-2005 Mar-2005 Apr-2005 May-2005 Jun-2005 Jul-2005 Aug-2005 Sep-2005 Oct-2005 1,580.00 1,545.00 1,992.00 1,629.00 1,530.00 1,679.00 1,394.00 1,586.00 2,152.00 5,337.00 1,304.00 2,004.00 1,612.00 1,626.00 2,120.00 1,667.00 1,554.00 1,746.00 1,503.00 1,662.00 2,208.00 5,810.00 1,361.00 2,019.00 1,477.00 1,616.00 2,071.00 1,711.00 1,677.00 1,761.00 1,629.00 1,759.00 2,291.00 6,171.00 1,461.00 2,344.00 1,764.00 1,826.00 2,226.00 1,882.00 1,787.00 1,794.00 1,726.00 1,845.00 2,399.00 6,489.00 1,458.00 2,394.00 1,773.00 1,909.00 2,243.00 1,953.00 1,754.00 1,940.00 1,743.00 1,878.00 1,505.90 1,598.56 2,104.81 1,723.90 1,571.54 1,635.77 1,554.46 1,508.83 1,997.58 5,525.09 1,227.19 1,852.07 1,494.22 1,527.67 2,060.85 1,748.62 1,646.31 1,770.83 1,544.70 1,710.89 2,262.51 5,706.66 1,372.02 2,054.47 1,602.65 1,534.82 2,002.41 1,610.69 1,551.68 1,790.19 1,551.19 1,766.89 2,376.16 6,162.78 1,458.99 2,191.11 1,704.20 1,858.57 2,375.66 1,897.56 1,814.27 1,920.93 1,698.99 1,846.53 2,427.67 6,467.58 1,527.20 2,338.88 1,746.31 1,819.99 2,295.16 1,915.09 1,835.73 1,859.10 1,792.43 1,903.15 Nov-2005 Dec-2005 2,454.00 6,717.00 2,474.47 6,656.44 Apr-1998 Sep-1998 Feb-1999 Jul-1999 Dec-1999 May-2000 Oct-2000 Mar-2001 Aug-2001 Jan-2002 Jun-2002 Nov-2002 Apr-2003 Sep-2003 Feb-2004 Jul-2004 Dec-2004 May-2005 Oct-2005 Mar-2006 Aug-2006 ales ($Millions) Upper Limit Lower Limit Seasonal Indexes Index 1 Index 2 Index 3 Index 4 Index 5 Index 6 Index 7 Index 8 Index 9 Index 10 Index 11 Index 12 Value 0.61 0.77 0.70 0.75 0.92 0.89 0.86 0.90 0.85 0.91 1.11 2.72 ...
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This note was uploaded on 11/11/2009 for the course FTS 4905 taught by Professor Stanuryasev during the Spring '09 term at University of Florida.

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