c3t13 - Date Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-05 Sep-05...

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Unformatted text preview: Date Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 MUSTARD 50,137 76,030 68,590 80,681 55,228 54,577 44,384 42,337 45,512 45,798 38,045 42,127 44,422 57,662 71,427 73,269 49,695 49,021 45,263 42,210 43,968 43,778 39,524 40,476 51,167 51,916 62,274 Event Index 7 7 3 4 5 0 8 0 6 4 5 0 2 1 6 5 8 1 0 1 6 4 0 0 2 1 6 4 5 0 2 1 6 Legend: 0 = Nothing 1 = FSI 2 = Thematics 3 = Big Load 4 = After Load 5 = Deload 6 = Light Load 7 = FSI / Act Media 8 = Cross Cpn FSI = free standing inserts. These are off-cents coupons distributed in newspapers Thematics = Themed add campaign Big Load = Large trade promotion - often a deep drop in the case price for the retailer Deload = Month after effect of a "load" Act Media = Radio, television, print add campaign Cross Coupons = Cents off coupons placed directly on the packaging of other goods Event Indices Legend: 0 = Nothing 1 = FSI 2 = Thematics 3 = Big Load 4 = After Load 5 = Deload 6 = Light Load 7 = FSI / Act Media 8 = Cross Cpn FSI = free standing inserts. These are off-cents coupons distributed in newspapers Thematics = Themed add campaign Big Load = Large trade promotion - often a deep drop in the case price for the retailer Deload = Month after effect of a "load" Act Media = Radio, television, print add campaign Cross Coupons = Cents off coupons placed directly on the packaging of other goods 90,000.00 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 Column C 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Jun-1998 Oct-1998 Feb-1999 Jun-1999 Oct-1999 Feb-2000 Jun-2000 Apr-1998 Aug-1998 Dec-1998 Apr-1999 Aug-1999 Dec-1999 Apr-2000 Tracking Report Dates Apr-1998 May-1998 Jun-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Oct-1998 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Jan-1999 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Jun-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Oct-1999 Nov-1999 Dec-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Apr-2000 May-2000 Jun-2000 Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Dec-2000 90,000.00 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Actual 50,137.21 Forecast Fitted Values Lower Limit 49,365.58 Upper Limit 76,029.90 73,597.92 68,589.70 69,509.44 80,680.98 79,905.90 55,227.65 54,852.81 54,576.78 53,927.03 44,384.04 44,328.44 42,336.96 41,746.90 45,512.31 44,301.68 45,798.30 44,308.43 38,045.21 37,050.63 42,126.63 40,303.07 44,422.31 45,748.68 57,661.64 69,124.74 71,427.43 62,083.27 73,269.22 73,467.75 49,695.44 50,324.88 49,021.06 49,668.81 45,263.23 40,420.71 42,210.27 38,796.86 43,968.33 41,911.36 43,777.78 42,325.83 39,523.68 35,321.86 40,475.78 39,378.51 51,166.55 42,186.35 51,915.88 57,391.46 62,274.42 68,255.86 68,255.86 71,165.50 76,740.08 65,590.93 48,642.38 56,759.90 40,524.86 48,316.11 59,089.53 37,542.68 44,014.73 57,490.38 30,539.07 41,169.35 57,370.41 24,968.29 43,088.31 62,027.94 24,148.69 MUSTARD Jun-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Jan-1999 Jul-1999 Jul-1998 Oct-1999 Jun-2000 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Apr-1999 May-1999 Nov-1999 May-2000 Oct-1998 Jun-1999 Dec-1999 May-1998 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Jul-2000 Actual Forecast Fitted Values Upper Limit Lower Limit Forecast --Holt WintersSelected Date Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Dec-2000 Total Avg Max Min Monthly 71,165.50 48,642.38 48,316.11 44,014.73 41,169.35 43,088.31 296,396.39 49,399.40 71,165.50 41,169.35 Forecast Quarterly Annual 5% - 95% Upper Limit 76,740.08 56,759.90 59,089.53 57,490.38 57,370.41 62,027.94 61,579.71 76,740.08 56,759.90 5% - 95% Lower Limit 65,590.93 40,524.86 37,542.68 30,539.07 24,968.29 24,148.69 37,219.09 65,590.93 24,148.69 168,123.99 128,272.39 148,198.19 168,123.99 128,272.39 296,396.39 296,396.39 296,396.39 296,396.39 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of The data has a standard deviation of The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 5.18% 12,121.71 88.35% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis Series:MUSTARD Dates Apr-1998 May-1998 Jun-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Oct-1998 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Jan-1999 Original Data 50,137.21 76,029.90 68,589.70 80,680.98 55,227.65 54,576.78 44,384.04 42,336.96 45,512.31 45,798.30 Fitted Data 49,365.58 73,597.92 69,509.44 79,905.90 54,852.81 53,927.03 44,328.44 41,746.90 44,301.68 44,308.43 Error Series % Change 771.63 2,431.98 51.64% -919.74 -9.79% 775.08 17.63% 374.85 -31.55% 649.75 -1.18% 55.60 -18.68% 590.05 -4.61% 1,210.63 7.50% 1,489.87 0.63% Forecast % Change 49.09% -5.56% 14.96% -31.35% -1.69% -17.80% -5.82% 6.12% 0.02% Aug-2000 Apr-1998 Apr-2000 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Jun-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Oct-1999 Nov-1999 Dec-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Apr-2000 May-2000 Jun-2000 Avg Max Min StDev Var Median 38,045.21 42,126.63 44,422.31 57,661.64 71,427.43 73,269.22 49,695.44 49,021.06 45,263.23 42,210.27 43,968.33 43,777.78 39,523.68 40,475.78 51,166.55 51,915.88 62,274.42 52,204.40 80,680.98 38,045.21 12,121.71 146,935,870.31 49,021.06 37,050.63 40,303.07 45,748.68 69,124.74 62,083.27 73,467.75 50,324.88 49,668.81 40,420.71 38,796.86 41,911.36 42,325.83 35,321.86 39,378.51 42,186.35 57,391.46 68,255.86 51,466.84 79,905.90 35,321.86 13,067.27 170,753,426.17 45,748.68 994.58 1,823.56 -1,326.37 -11,463.10 9,344.16 -198.53 -629.44 -647.75 4,842.53 3,413.41 2,056.97 1,451.95 4,201.82 1,097.27 8,980.20 -5,475.58 -5,981.44 737.55 9,344.16 -11,463.10 4,067.78 16,546,802.61 775.08 -16.93% 10.73% 5.45% 29.80% 23.87% 2.58% -32.17% -1.36% -7.67% -6.74% 4.17% -0.43% -9.72% 2.41% 26.41% 1.46% 19.95% 2.44% 51.64% -32.17% 18.54% 3.44% 1.05% -16.38% 8.78% 13.51% 51.10% -10.19% 18.34% -31.50% -1.30% -18.62% -4.02% 8.03% 0.99% -16.55% 11.48% 7.13% 36.04% 18.93% 3.22% 51.10% -31.50% 20.86% 4.35% 0.50% Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures AIC BIC Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Adjusted R-Square Root Mean Square Error Theil Method Statistics Method Selected Level Seasonal Trend Decomposition type Seasonal Indexes Index 1 Index 2 Index 3 Index 4 Index 5 Index 6 Index 7 Index 8 Index 9 Index 10 Index 11 Index 12 ForecastX Configuration Parameters Item Data range selected Time scale for data Periods to forecast Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Value [Book29]Sheet1!$A$1:$B$28 Monthly 6.00 No Value 531.30 535.18 5.18% 88.35% 87.38% 4,059.30 0.48 Value Holt Winters 0.05 0.88 0.26 Multiplicative Value 0.90 1.35 1.29 1.49 1.03 1.02 0.85 0.81 0.86 0.87 0.73 0.80 Forecast Statistics Durbin Watson (12) Mean Standard Deviation Ljung-Box Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeroes Remove Trailing Zeroes Use Holdback Evaluation Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Report Details Run Date: 3/3/2008 6:43:02 PM Author: Barry Keating Note: No No No No No Holt Winters Jun-2000 Jul-2000 May-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 mit Cumulative Error 771.63 1,601.81 761.29 764.74 686.76 680.59 591.31 591.15 659.98 742.97 Cumulative MAPE 1.54% 1.57% 1.20% 0.96% 0.79% 0.69% 0.60% 0.54% 0.52% 0.50% Dec-2000 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Apr-2000 765.84 853.99 686.27 -181.55 453.50 412.75 351.44 295.93 535.23 679.14 744.75 776.89 925.80 932.95 1,254.84 995.98 737.55 706.43 1,601.81 -181.55 317.68 100,918.49 737.55 0.47% 0.46% 0.45% 0.52% 0.54% 0.51% 0.48% 0.46% 0.46% 0.46% 0.45% 0.44% 0.44% 0.42% 0.44% 0.43% 0.43% 0.62% 1.57% 0.42% 0.32% 0.00% 0.48% ast Statistics n Watson (12) ard Deviation Value 1.63 52,204.40 12,121.71 1.90 Tracking Report Dates Apr-1998 May-1998 Jun-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Oct-1998 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Jan-1999 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Jun-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Oct-1999 Nov-1999 Dec-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Apr-2000 May-2000 Jun-2000 Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Dec-2000 90,000.00 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Actual 50,137.21 Forecast Fitted Values Lower Limit 49,731.29 Upper Limit 76,029.90 75,462.11 68,589.70 68,130.23 80,680.98 80,088.88 55,227.65 54,983.00 54,576.78 54,309.43 44,384.04 44,404.10 42,336.96 41,865.26 45,512.31 44,935.66 45,798.30 45,316.59 38,045.21 37,962.08 42,126.63 41,424.84 44,422.31 44,584.52 57,661.64 57,302.79 71,427.43 72,849.11 73,269.22 74,472.22 49,695.44 50,456.62 49,021.06 48,417.70 45,263.23 41,155.49 42,210.27 41,938.76 43,968.33 44,029.92 43,777.78 42,964.64 39,523.68 34,838.61 40,475.78 39,775.83 51,166.55 50,591.55 51,915.88 61,610.43 62,274.42 56,707.33 56,707.33 72,206.32 74,937.20 69,475.44 48,270.97 52,304.12 44,237.82 49,194.83 54,589.94 43,799.71 50,155.08 56,935.99 43,374.18 35,695.82 43,874.24 27,517.41 37,436.68 47,019.20 27,854.15 MUSTARD Jun-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Jan-1999 Jul-1999 Jul-1998 Oct-1999 Jun-2000 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Apr-1999 May-1999 Nov-1999 May-2000 Oct-1998 Jun-1999 Dec-1999 May-1998 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Jul-2000 Actual Forecast Fitted Values Upper Limit Lower Limit Forecast --Holt WintersSelected Date Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Dec-2000 Total Avg Max Min Monthly 72,206.32 48,270.97 49,194.83 50,155.08 35,695.82 37,436.68 292,959.70 48,826.62 72,206.32 35,695.82 Forecast Quarterly Annual 5% - 95% Upper Limit 74,937.20 52,304.12 54,589.94 56,935.99 43,874.24 47,019.20 54,943.45 74,937.20 43,874.24 5% - 95% Lower Limit 69,475.44 44,237.82 43,799.71 43,374.18 27,517.41 27,854.15 42,709.79 69,475.44 27,517.41 169,672.12 123,287.59 146,479.85 169,672.12 123,287.59 292,959.70 292,959.70 292,959.70 292,959.70 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of The data has a standard deviation of The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 2.62% 12,121.71 95.49% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis Series:MUSTARD Dates Apr-1998 May-1998 Jun-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Oct-1998 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Jan-1999 Original Data 50,137.21 76,029.90 68,589.70 80,680.98 55,227.65 54,576.78 44,384.04 42,336.96 45,512.31 45,798.30 Fitted Data 49,731.29 75,462.11 68,130.23 80,088.88 54,983.00 54,309.43 44,404.10 41,865.26 44,935.66 45,316.59 Error Series % Change 405.92 567.79 51.64% 459.46 -9.79% 592.10 17.63% 244.66 -31.55% 267.34 -1.18% -20.06 -18.68% 471.69 -4.61% 576.65 7.50% 481.71 0.63% Forecast % Change 51.74% -9.72% 17.55% -31.35% -1.23% -18.24% -5.72% 7.33% 0.85% Aug-2000 Apr-1998 Apr-2000 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Jun-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Oct-1999 Nov-1999 Dec-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Apr-2000 May-2000 Jun-2000 Avg Max Min StDev Var Median 38,045.21 42,126.63 44,422.31 57,661.64 71,427.43 73,269.22 49,695.44 49,021.06 45,263.23 42,210.27 43,968.33 43,777.78 39,523.68 40,475.78 51,166.55 51,915.88 62,274.42 52,204.40 80,680.98 38,045.21 12,121.71 146,935,870.31 49,021.06 37,962.08 41,424.84 44,584.52 57,302.79 72,849.11 74,472.22 50,456.62 48,417.70 41,155.49 41,938.76 44,029.92 42,964.64 34,838.61 39,775.83 50,591.55 61,610.43 56,707.33 51,863.30 80,088.88 34,838.61 12,626.05 159,417,064.71 48,417.70 83.13 701.79 -162.21 358.85 -1,421.68 -1,203.00 -761.18 603.36 4,107.74 271.52 -61.59 813.14 4,685.07 699.95 575.00 -9,694.56 5,567.09 341.10 5,567.09 -9,694.56 2,551.41 6,509,698.82 459.46 -16.93% 10.73% 5.45% 29.80% 23.87% 2.58% -32.17% -1.36% -7.67% -6.74% 4.17% -0.43% -9.72% 2.41% 26.41% 1.46% 19.95% 2.44% 51.64% -32.17% 18.54% 3.44% 1.05% -16.23% 9.12% 7.63% 28.53% 27.13% 2.23% -32.25% -4.04% -15.00% 1.90% 4.99% -2.42% -18.91% 14.17% 27.19% 21.78% -7.96% 2.27% 51.74% -32.25% 19.45% 3.78% 1.38% Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures AIC BIC Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Adjusted R-Square Root Mean Square Error Theil Method Statistics Method Selected Basic Method Level (for Event Index) Level Seasonal Trend Decomposition type Seasonal Indexes Index 1 Index 2 Index 3 Index 4 Index 5 Index 6 Index 7 Index 8 Index 9 Index 10 Index 11 Index 12 ForecastX Configuration Parameters Item Data range selected Time scale for data Periods to forecast Seasonal Length Value [mustard.xlsx]Sheet1!$A$1:$B$28 Monthly 6.00 Value 505.70 509.59 2.62% 95.49% 95.11% 2,526.85 0.28 Value Event Model Holt Winters 0.20 0.05 0.92 0.26 Multiplicative Value 0.90 1.36 1.29 1.49 1.03 1.03 0.85 0.81 0.85 0.86 0.73 0.82 Event Indexes Index 7 Index 3 Index 4 Index 5 Index 8 Index 6 Index 2 Index 1 Forecast Statistics Durbin Watson (12) Mean Standard Deviation Ljung-Box Replace Outliers Activated Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeroes Remove Trailing Zeroes Use Holdback Evaluation Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Report Details Run Date: 3/3/2008 6:44:22 PM Author: Barry Keating Note: No No No No No No Event Model Jun-2000 Jul-2000 May-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 mit Cumulative Error 405.92 486.85 477.72 506.32 453.99 422.88 359.60 373.61 396.17 404.73 Cumulative MAPE 0.81% 0.59% 0.47% 0.40% 0.34% 0.29% 0.25% 0.24% 0.23% 0.22% Dec-2000 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Apr-2000 375.49 402.68 359.23 359.20 240.48 150.26 96.65 124.80 334.43 331.28 312.57 335.32 524.44 531.76 533.49 140.10 341.10 362.26 533.49 96.65 123.15 15,166.11 373.61 0.20% 0.19% 0.18% 0.17% 0.17% 0.16% 0.16% 0.15% 0.17% 0.16% 0.16% 0.15% 0.17% 0.17% 0.16% 0.18% 0.19% 0.25% 0.81% 0.15% 0.15% 0.00% 0.18% ast Statistics n Watson (12) ard Deviation Value 1.15 52,204.40 12,121.71 5.79 Value 1.03 0.99 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.94 1.16 0.94 Historical RMSE Level Smoothing Factor (alpha) Seasonal Smoothing Factor (beta) Trend Smoothing Factor (gamma) Event Index 1 Event Index 2 Event Index 3 Event Index 4 Event Index 5 Event Index 6 Event Index 7 Event Index 8 Winters' Model 4,059 0.05 0.88 0.26 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Winters Model with Event Indices 2,526.85 0.2 0.92 0.26 0.94 1.16 0.99 1.03 1.00 0.94 1.03 0.99 ...
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