c3t8 - Year Dec-65 Dec-66 Dec-67 Dec-68 Dec-69 Dec-70...

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Unformatted text preview: Year Dec-65 Dec-66 Dec-67 Dec-68 Dec-69 Dec-70 Dec-71 Dec-72 Dec-73 Dec-74 Dec-75 Dec-76 Dec-77 Dec-78 Dec-79 Dec-80 Dec-81 Dec-82 Dec-83 Dec-84 Dec-85 Dec-86 Dec-87 Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Percent Adoptions 0 6.15 12.73 19.65 26.78 33.96 41.07 47.94 54.46 60.53 66.08 71.07 75.5 79.37 82.72 85.6 88.04 90.1 91.83 93.27 94.47 95.46 96.28 96.95 97.51 97.96 Use only first five years of data for estimation Tracking Report Dates 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 120.00 Actual 0.00 6.15 12.73 Forecast 19.65 26.78 27.51 36.55 45.62 54.22 62.04 68.92 74.80 79.74 83.81 87.14 89.82 91.97 93.68 95.03 96.11 96.95 97.61 98.13 98.54 98.86 99.11 Percent Adoptions Fitted Values 3.05 Upper Limit Lower Limit 6.58 11.98 19.11 27.51 38.82 48.82 58.15 66.58 73.99 80.35 85.74 90.23 93.94 96.99 99.48 101.53 103.21 104.59 105.73 106.68 107.48 108.16 108.74 109.25 34.29 42.41 50.29 57.51 63.85 69.25 73.74 77.40 80.33 82.65 84.45 85.82 86.86 87.62 88.17 88.55 88.79 88.92 88.98 88.97 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 1965 1966 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Actual Forecast Fitted Values Upper Limit Lower Limit Forecast --Gompertz CurveSelected Forecast Date 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Total Avg Max Min Annual 36.55 45.62 54.22 62.04 68.92 74.80 79.74 83.81 87.14 89.82 91.97 93.68 95.03 96.11 96.95 97.61 98.13 98.54 98.86 99.11 1,648.65 82.43 99.11 36.55 5% - 95% Upper Limit 38.82 48.82 58.15 66.58 73.99 80.35 85.74 90.23 93.94 96.99 99.48 101.53 103.21 104.59 105.73 106.68 107.48 108.16 108.74 109.25 89.42 109.25 38.82 5% - 95% Lower Limit 34.29 42.41 50.29 57.51 63.85 69.25 73.74 77.40 80.33 82.65 84.45 85.82 86.86 87.62 88.17 88.55 88.79 88.92 88.98 88.97 75.44 88.98 34.29 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of The data has a standard deviation of The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 4.62% 10.61 97.58% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis 1986 1968 1969 1976 1977 1985 1967 1975 1984 Series:Percent Adoptions Dates 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Avg Max Min StDev Var Median Original Data 0.00 6.15 12.73 19.65 26.78 13.06 26.78 0.00 10.61 112.50 12.73 Fitted Data 3.05 6.58 11.98 19.11 27.51 13.65 27.51 3.05 9.84 96.77 11.98 Error -3.05 -0.44 0.75 0.53 -0.74 -0.59 0.75 -3.05 1.51 2.29 -0.44 Series % Change 0.00% 107.13% 54.35% 36.27% 49.44% 107.13% 0.00% 44.61% 19.90% 45.31% Forecast % Change 115.54% 82.02% 59.53% 43.94% 75.26% 115.54% 43.94% 31.07% 9.65% 70.77% Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures AIC BIC Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Adjusted R-Square Root Mean Square Error Theil Method Statistics Method Selected Minimum Maximum ForecastX Configuration Parameters Item Data range selected Time scale for data Periods to forecast Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeroes Remove Trailing Zeroes Use Holdback Evaluation Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Report Details Run Date: 3/3/2008 3:38:03 PM Author: Barry Keating Note: Value [c3t8.xls]Color Television'!$A$1:$B$6 Annual 20.00 No Value 26.09 24.53 4.62% 97.58% 90.30% 1.48 0.11 Value Gompertz Curve 0.00 100.00 Forecast Statistics Durbin Watson (4) Mean Standard Deviation Ljung-Box No No No No No Gompertz Curve 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 mit 1981 Cumulative Error -3.05 -1.75 -0.91 -0.55 -0.59 -1.37 -0.55 -3.05 1.06 1.12 -0.91 Cumulative MAPE 0.00% 1.78% 1.84% 1.55% 1.35% 1.30% 1.84% 0.00% 0.75% 0.01% 1.55% ast Statistics ard Deviation Value 0.49 13.06 10.61 0.14 Percent Adoptions 6.15 12.73 Date 19.65 26.78 33.96 41.07 47.94 54.46 60.53 66.08 71.07 75.5 79.37 82.72 85.6 88.04 90.1 91.83 93.27 94.47 95.46 96.28 96.95 97.51 97.96 120 Fitted Values Lower 1966 Forecast of Percent Adoptions Upper 5.9 1967 12.26 1968 19.01 1969 26.04 1970 33.21 1971 40.39 1972 47.42 1973 54.16 1974 60.49 1975 66.31 1976 71.56 1977 76.21 1978 80.26 1979 83.74 1980 86.69 1981 89.16 1982 91.21 1983 92.9 1984 94.28 Percent Adoptions 1985 95.41 1986 96.32 1987 97.05 1988 97.64 1989 98.12 1990 98.5 98.5 1991 98.8 100.52 97.09 1992 99.05 101.47 96.62 1993 99.24 102.21 96.27 1994 99.4 102.83 95.96 1995 99.52 103.36 95.68 1996 99.62 103.82 95.41 1997 99.7 104.24 95.15 1998 99.76 104.61 94.9 1999 99.81 104.96 94.66 2000 99.85 105.28 94.42 2001 99.88 105.57 94.18 2002 99.9 105.85 93.96 2003 99.92 106.11 93.73 2004 99.94 106.36 93.52 2005 99.95 106.6 93.3 2006 99.96 106.83 93.09 2007 99.97 107.05 92.89 2008 99.98 107.26 92.69 2009 107.46 92.5 2010 107.66 92.31 2011 99.99 107.85 92.12 100 80 60 40 20 0 66 68 72 74 76 78 82 84 86 88 92 94 96 98 04 06 08 20 80 90 00 02 70 19 19 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 Column A Column C Column D Column E Column F Forecast -- Base Model Selected Forecast Date 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Annual 98.80 99.05 99.24 99.40 99.52 99.62 99.70 99.76 99.81 99.85 99.88 99.90 99.92 99.94 99.95 99.96 99.97 99.98 99.98 2.5% - 97.5% Upper 100.52 101.47 102.21 102.83 103.36 103.82 104.24 104.61 104.96 105.28 105.57 105.85 106.11 106.36 106.60 106.83 107.05 107.26 107.46 2.5% - 97.5% Lower 97.09 96.62 96.27 95.96 95.68 95.41 95.15 94.90 94.66 94.42 94.18 93.96 93.73 93.52 93.30 93.09 92.89 92.69 92.50 10 2010 2011 Avg Max Min 99.98 99.99 99.72 99.99 98.80 107.66 107.85 105.14 107.85 100.52 92.31 92.12 94.31 97.09 92.12 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of The data has a standard deviation of The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 1.37% 29.67 99.93% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis Series: Percent Adoptions Original Date Data 1966 6.15 1967 12.73 1968 19.65 1969 26.78 1970 33.96 1971 41.07 1972 47.94 1973 54.46 1974 60.53 1975 66.08 1976 71.07 1977 75.50 1978 79.37 1979 82.72 1980 85.60 1981 88.04 1982 90.10 1983 91.83 1984 93.27 1985 94.47 1986 95.46 1987 96.28 1988 96.95 1989 97.51 1990 97.96 Avg 68.22 Max 97.96 Min 6.15 StDev 29.67 Fitted Data 5.90 12.26 19.01 26.04 33.21 40.39 47.42 54.16 60.49 66.31 71.56 76.21 80.26 83.74 86.69 89.16 91.21 92.90 94.28 95.41 96.32 97.05 97.64 98.12 98.50 68.57 98.50 5.90 30.28 Error 0.25 0.47 0.64 0.74 0.75 0.68 0.52 0.30 0.03 -0.24 -0.49 -0.72 -0.89 -1.02 -1.09 -1.12 -1.11 -1.07 -1.01 -0.94 -0.86 -0.77 -0.69 -0.61 -0.53 -0.35 0.75 -1.12 0.69 Series % Change 107.13% 54.35% 36.27% 26.85% 20.91% 16.74% 13.60% 11.14% 9.17% 7.56% 6.23% 5.13% 4.22% 3.47% 2.85% 2.34% 1.92% 1.57% 1.28% 1.05% 0.86% 0.70% 0.57% 0.47% 14.02% 107.13% 0.47% 23.81% Forecast % Change 107.84% 55.02% 36.96% 27.56% 21.62% 17.41% 14.22% 11.68% 9.62% 7.92% 6.50% 5.31% 4.33% 3.52% 2.85% 2.30% 1.85% 1.49% 1.19% 0.96% 0.76% 0.61% 0.49% 0.39% 14.27% 107.84% 0.39% 24.03% Cumulative Error 0.25 0.36 0.45 0.52 0.57 0.59 0.58 0.54 0.49 0.41 0.33 0.24 0.16 0.07 -0.01 -0.07 -0.14 -0.19 -0.23 -0.27 -0.29 -0.32 -0.33 -0.34 -0.35 0.12 0.59 -0.35 0.35 Cumulative MAPE 4.00% 2.92% 2.31% 1.90% 1.61% 1.39% 1.21% 1.07% 0.95% 0.86% 0.79% 0.73% 0.68% 0.64% 0.60% 0.57% 0.54% 0.51% 0.49% 0.47% 0.45% 0.43% 0.41% 0.39% 0.38% 1.05% 4.00% 0.38% 0.89% Var Median Audit Trail - Statistics 880.21 79.37 916.65 80.26 0.47 -0.61 5.67% 4.68% 5.78% 4.82% 0.12 0.16 0.01% 0.68% Accuracy Measures AIC BIC Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Adjusted R-Square Root Mean Square Error Method Statistics Method Selected p(inovation rate) r(immitation rate) qbar(cummulative value) ForecastX Configuration Parameters Value 59.19 60.41 1.37% 99.93% 99.93% 0.76 Value Base Model 0.06 0.15 100.00 Forecast Statistics Durbin Watson(1) Mean Standard Deviation Ljung-Box Value 0.04 68.22 29.67 107.16 Item Value Data Range Selected [CD Adoptions.xls]CD Adoption'!$A$1:$B$27 Time scale for data Annual Periods to forecast 21 Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated No Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values No Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeros Yes Remove Trailing Zeros No Use Holdback Evaluation No Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal No Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Bass Model Report Details Run Date: 4/16/2005 1:55 PM Author: John Galt Development, Inc. Note: ForecastX Dates 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Original Data 0.00 6.15 12.73 19.65 26.78 Fitted Data 3.05 6.58 11.98 19.11 27.51 36.55 45.62 54.22 62.04 68.92 74.80 79.74 83.81 87.14 89.82 91.97 93.68 95.03 96.11 96.95 97.61 98.13 98.54 98.86 99.11 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 Original 40.00 20.00 0.00 1966 1965 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 198 Original Data Fitted Data 978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1989 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 ...
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