c3t5 - Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Observed 100 96...

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Period Observed 1 100 2 96 3 107 4 98 5 103 6 99 7 126 8 128 9 122 10 130 11 125 12 124
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Period Observed Forecast Error Smoothed Error Absolute Smoothed Error Alpha 1 100 2 96 100.000 4.000 -0.800 0.800 1.000 3 107 96.000 -11.000 1.560 2.840 0.549 4 98 102.042 4.042 0.440 3.080 0.143 5 103 101.464 -1.536 0.659 2.771 0.238 6 99 101.830 2.830 -0.039 2.783 0.014 7 126 101.790 -24.210 4.811 7.068 0.681 8 128 118.267 -9.733 5.795 7.601 0.762 9 122 125.687 3.687 3.899 6.818 0.572 10 130 123.579 -6.421 4.403 6.739 0.653 11 125 127.774 2.774 2.968 5.946 0.499 12 124 126.390 2.390 1.896 5.235 0.362 Chapter 3 Table 3-5 Adaptive-Response Example 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
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Forecast -- Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Selected Forecast Date Annual 2001 124.37 Avg 124.37 Max 124.37 Min 124.37 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of 6.11% The data has a standard deviation of 13.63 The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 46.47% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis
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c3t5 - Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Observed 100 96...

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