case3_05 - Table 1 Plan A Scenario Probability Unit sales...

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Table 1 Plan A Scenario Probability Unit sales Dollar sales Operating Costs Pessimistic 25% 11,300 15,820,000 16,595,000 Most likely 50% 28,900 40,460,000 36,835,000 Optimistic 25% 46,300 64,820,000 56,845,000 Expectet 28,850.00 40,390,000.00 36,777,500.00 St. Dev. Coefficient of variation 15820000 Table2 Plan B Scenario Probability Unit sales Dollar sales Operating Costs Pessimistic 25% 11,300 15,820,000 16,943,000 Most likely 50% 28,900 40,460,000 36,479,000 Optimistic 25% 46,300 64,820,000 55,793,000 Expectet 28,850.00 40,390,000.00 36,423,500.00 St. Dev. Coefficient of variation 0.05 -20000 2500000000 0.2 0 900000000 0.5 30000 0 0.2 60000 900000000 0.05 80000 2500000000 30000 6800000000 1700000000 41231.06 Plan A Plan B Expected EBIT 3,612,500.00 3,966,500.00 Expeceted ROI 0.1720 0.1653 St. Dev. Of EBIT 3,093,617 3,588,596 St. Dev. Of ROI 0.15 0.15 CV 0.86 0.9
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Cost of Cost of EBIT NOPAT ROI debt equity -775,000.00 -465,000 -0.0369 -465000 - 10.00% 3,625,000.00 2,175,000 0.1726 2175000 7.00% 11.00% 7,975,000.00 4,785,000 0.3798 4785000 8.00% 12.00% 3,612,500.00 2,167,500.00 0.1720 2,165,000.00 10.75% 16.00% 3,093,617 0.15 21650000 14.25% 20.00% 0.86 0.86 EBIT NOPAT ROI Appendix A -1,123,000.00 -673,800 -0.0468 Table 3 $10 mil borrowe 3,981,000.00 2,388,600 0.1659 Demand Probability 9,027,000.00 5,416,200 0.3761 Pessimistic 0.25 3,966,500.00 2,379,900.00 0.1653 Most likely 0.50 3,588,596 0.15 Optimistic 0.25 0.9 0.9 Expected Value Table 4 $15 mil borrowe Demand Probability Pessimistic 0.25 Most likely 0.50 125000000 Optimistic 0.25 180000000 Expected Value 0 180000000 Table 5 $20 mil borrowe 125000000 Demand Probability 610000000 Pessimistic 0.25 36,125,000.00 Most likely 0.50 Optimistic 0.25 Expected Value 885000 Table 6 $25 mil borrowe Demand Probability Pessimistic 0.25 Most likely 0.50 Optimistic 0.25 Expected Value Table 7 $0 mil borrowed Demand Probability Pessimistic 0.25 Most likely 0.50 Optimistic 0.25 Expected Value After Tax Cos Cost of Equity 10% 4.20% 11% 4.80% 12% 6.45% 16% 8.55% 20%
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Debt Firm Number of Founders value founder's shares wealth $ 0 21,675,000 54,656 675,000 $10000000 25,886,364 395,657 4,886,364 $15000000
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