pandemic - Modeling Influenza Pandemic, Intervention...

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1 Modeling Influenza Pandemic, Intervention Strategies, and Food Distribution Ali Ekici Pinar Keskinocak Pengyi Shi Julie Swann 1 H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial & Systems Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Pandemic Flu ± “Epidemic over a wide geographic area and affecting a large proportion of the population.” Epidemiologists “There is a high chance that a Swine Flu http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/ Pandemic cases in history Excess Mortality Populations Affected 1918-19 (Spanish flu) 40-50 million Persons <65 years ± Epidemiologists: “There is a high chance that a pandemic flu will hit the world in the near future” (A/H1N1) (2.2-2.8%) 1957-58 (Asian flu) (A/H2N2) 2 million (0.069%) Infants, elderly 1968-69 (Hong Kong flu) (A/H3N2) 1 million (0.028%) Infants, elderly
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2 Potential Impact of Pandemic Flu ± $71.3-165.5 billion economic impact in the U S (CDC U.S. (CDC) ± U.S. Department of Health & Human Services and U.S. Department of Commerce estimates ² 20% of working adults will become ill 3 ² 40% workforce loss during peak outbreak periods Preparedness and Response Plans ± Preparation efforts ² Local governments ² Federal government ² NGOs ² Companies ± Response plans focus on 4 ² How to treat ill people ² Food, vaccine and medicine distribution
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3 Focus of Analysis ± Modeling and understanding the disease spread geographically and over time ² Impact of seasonality and mutation Impact of and ± Analyzing the impact of intervention strategies ± Constructing a food distribution network ² Estimating the food need ² Number of facilities and their locations (over time) ² Allocation of resources among the facilities In collaboration with 5 In collaboration with GA Department of Education, and GA-DHR Department of Public Health Disease Spread Model ± An individual-based stochastic model ± 5 age groups (0-5, 6-11, 12-18, 19-64, 65+) A S: Susceptible E: Exposed I P : Presymptomatic I A : Asymptomatic : Symptomatic p D 1-p D p H 1-p H 1-p A p A S E P R D S I H p A = 0.4 for adults (19-64) and 0.25 for others (1,2,3,4) p H = 0.18 for children between 0 and 5, 0.12 for elderly (65+) and 0.06 for others (1,2) p D = 0.344 for elderly and children between 0 and 5 and 0.172 for others (1,6) Duration of E + I P ~ Weibull(1.48, 0.47) (including an offset of 0.5 days) (1,5) Duration of I P = 0.5 days (1,5) Duration of I S ~ Exponential(2.7313) (1) Duration of I A ~ Exponential(1.63878) (1) Duration of Exponential(14) (1 5) 6 I S R: Recovered I H : Hospitalized D: Dead Duration of I H ~ Exponential(14) (1,5) 1 Wu, J. T., S. Riley, C. Fraser, G. M. Leung. 2006. Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions. PLoS Medicine 3(9) 1532-1540 2 Longini, I. M., A. Nizam, S. Xu, K. Ungchusak, W. Hanshaoworakul, D. A. T. Cummings, M. E. Hal oran. 2005. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309 1083-1087 3 Germann, T. C., K. Kadau, I. M. Longini, C. A. Macken. 2006. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103(15) 5935-5940 4 Ferguson, N. M., S. Mal ett, H. Jackson, N. Roberts, P. Ward. 2003b. A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals. Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 51 977-990
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pandemic - Modeling Influenza Pandemic, Intervention...

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