呂博裕952221E159013

呂博裕95...

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摘要 在許多產業,新產品導入的快速步伐導致產品生命週期縮短。產品生命週期縮短為 幾個月到最多三年,這在流行產業 ( 例如:玩具、服飾 ) 與高科技產業 ( 例如:電腦、 液晶顯示器、消耗性電子產品 ) 已非常普遍。短生命週期產品之典型需求型態可以下列 階段來表示:快速成長 (rapid growth) 、成熟 (maturity) 、衰退 (decline) ,且大都呈現 S 形曲線 (S-shaped curve) ,但傳統短期到中期的需求預測方法無法應用於短生命週期產 品,因此必須採用其他的方法 ( 例如: Bass 模式 ) 來預測這些產品的需求。根據國內光 電廠商之資料, TFT-LCD 更新產品的時間大概是二年,因此 TFT-LCD 是屬於短生命週 期產品,其單一型式產品 ( 例如: 15 吋液晶顯示器 ) 之累積需求亦呈現 S 形曲線。本研 究探討一典型的 TFT-LCD 供應鏈,供應鏈成員包括:物料 / 零件供應商、製造商、與客 戶。客戶累積需求呈現 S 形曲線,而製造商的生產模式是屬於 訂貨生產或接單生產 (MTO)” ,亦即製造商擁有物料 / 零件庫存,但無完成品庫存。同時,製造商採用需求預 測方法來預測產品的需求,以作為生產規劃與存貨決策的基礎。本研究提出一個以模擬 為基礎之研究架構,以探討各實驗變數 ( 包括:需求型態、各種不確定性等 ) TFT-LCD 供應鏈之影響程度。本研究所採用的績效指標包括:總利潤、總完成品數量、達交率、 與流程時間。最後,以一個實際的 TFT-LCD 供應鏈作為研究架構的示範。範例之分析 結果顯示,若以總利潤、達交率或流程時間為主要的績效指標,以低程度之外部影響係 數與內部影響係數表現較佳;若以總完成品數量為主要的績效指標,則外部影響係數與 內部影響係數各水準間並沒有顯著差異。 關鍵詞 :短生命週期、 TFT-LCD 供應鏈、模擬分析 ABSTRACT The fast pace of new product introduction has led to shortened life cycles for products in many industries. Products with life cycles of a few months to a maximum of 3 years are very common in fashion-based (e.g., toys, clothing) and high technology (e.g., computers, TFT-LCD, consumer electronics) industries. A typical demand pattern for such products is characterized by rapid growth, maturity, and decline phases and mostly follows an S-shaped curve. Traditional short- to medium-term demand forecasting methods are not oriented toward forecasting of short life cycle products. Therefore, other methods (e.g., Bass model) should be used to forecast the demand pattern for short life cycle products. According to the datas of the domestic photonics manufacturer, the life cycle for TFT-LCD is probably two years, therefore TFT-LCD is one of the short life cycle products and the demand pattern of its single model (e.g., 15” TFT -LCD) indeed follows an S-shaped curve. This study chooses a typical supply
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This note was uploaded on 11/27/2009 for the course IM MA420 taught by Professor Mar,lee during the Spring '09 term at National Taiwan University.

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呂博裕95...

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