林吉仁952221E233008

林吉仁95222...

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1 行政院國家科學委員會補助專題研究計畫 成 果 報 告 □期中進度報告 計畫類別: 個別型計畫 □ 整合型計畫 計畫編號: NSC 95 - 2221 - E - 233 - 008 - 執行期間: 95 年 08 月 01 日 96 年 07 月 31 日 計畫主持人:林吉仁 共同主持人: 計畫參與人員:王俊傑 成果報告類型(依經費核定清單規定繳交): 精簡報告 □完整報告 本成果報告包括以下應繳交之附件: □赴國外出差或研習心得報告一份 □赴大陸地區出差或研習心得報告一份 □出席國際學術會議心得報告及發表之論文各一份 □國際合作研究計畫國外研究報告書一份 處理方式:除產學合作研究計畫、提升產業技術及人才培育研究計畫、 列管計畫及下列情形者外,得立即公開查詢 □涉及專利或其他智慧財產權,□一年□二年後可公開查詢 執行單位:大華技術學院工業工程與管理系 96 09 24 群體決策之模糊 DEMATEL 法與應用( NSC 95-2221-E-233-008 ) 群體決策之模糊 DEMATEL 法與應用
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2 大華技術學院工業工程與管理系 副教授 林吉仁 Abstract Causal analysis largely influences the effectiveness of decision-making and the productivity of actions. The complex relationships between cause and effect as well as the fuzzy nature of human life make the casual analysis a difficult work. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy DEMATEL method for group decision-making to gather group ideas and analyze the cause-effect relationship of complex problems in fuzzy environments. Procedures of the fuzzy DEMATEL method are then proposed. By the fuzzy DEMATEL procedures, the involved criteria of a system (or subsystem) are separated into the cause group and effect group for helping decision-makers focusing on those criteria that provide great influence. An empirical study applies the proposed fuzzy DEMATEL method to the R&D project selection of a Taiwan company. The result shows, within the cause group, the criterion of “probability of technical success” is the most important factor for R&D project selection , whereas the “strategic fit” has the best effe ct on the other criteria. By contrast, the “net present value” is the most e asily improved of the effect group criteria. Keywords : Causal analysis, Fuzzy theory, Group decision-making, DEMATEL 中文摘要 因果分析對決策與行動的正確性影響極大,而因果間的複雜性與人類語言的模糊性使 因果分析更形困難。本研究開發出應用於群體決策的 Fuzzy DEMATEL 法,做為模糊環境 下因果分析的方法,並詳述 Fuzzy DEMATEL 法的進行步驟。最後將 Fuzzy DEMATEL 實際導入某企業研發部門。 關鍵字 :因果分析、模糊理論、群體決策、決策試驗與評量實驗室法
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3 報告內容 1. Introduction The effectiveness of decision-making depends largely on the ability of decision-makers to analyze the complex cause-effect relationship and take productive actions based on the analysis.
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