project_management

project_management - Project Management Two fundamental...

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167 Project Management Two fundamental analytic techniques were developed in the late 50's for planning, scheduling and controlling complex projects PERT (Performance Evaluation and Review Technique) Military origins CPM (Critical Path Method) Commercial origins Developed concurrently and independently, subsequent work has blurred the distinctions between them Provides a mechanism for planning projects in great detail Provides a way to answer the following questions: When will the project be completed? What are the activities that will delay the project if they take longer than expected? ( Critical activities) How late can activities be without delaying the project? Where can resources be spent to keep the project on track if critical activities take longer than expected? Where can resources be spent to speed up the completion of the project?
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Why is Project Management Important? Awareness of the implications of the project Provide some predictability Control time and cost in spite of Inaccurate estimates Conflicting priorities among projects Inability to deal with varying levels of work conditions, staff skills, and the like No intra- and inter-project reporting In many cases, 80% of the time and effort spent on project management is wasted due to a lack of focus on the crucial 20% that really makes a difference • “Big Dig” – 462% overrun from original – Original estimate $2.6B – Start of construction estimate $5.8B – Current estimate $14.6B
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169 Project Model A project here is defined as: a group of related activities precedence relations among the activities (what must be done before a given activity can start) duration: the estimated time(s) to do the activity Duration is a “random variable,” i.e., only know the likelihood of getting a specific duration Typically modeled with unimodal distribution of times Usually skewed to the right (tail to the right) Distributions with minimum , maximum and most likely (the mode) times to complete an activity E.g., Beta (most common), triangular time to complete an activity Predicted percentage that take a particular time
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170 Project Activity Milestone Times Assume duration is deterministic and known for now
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project_management - Project Management Two fundamental...

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