13_Default_Curve

13_Default_Curve - Default Curve 1 Introduction Starting...

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Default Curve 1 Introduction Starting from coupon bonds, we were able to deduce the prices of zero coupon bonds and the forward rates in a world without default. The forward curves enabled us to see what traders think future interest rates will be, assuming they believe there is no uncertainty in the world (because in that case the forward interest rates will be exactly the same as they think future interest rates will be). Since government bond traders spend a lot of time thinking about what future interest rates will be, they are likely to be better informed about this than the general public. The public can infer their opinions from the forward rates, without having to do the work of forecasting the future. We shall now introduce the simplest possible kind of uncertainty. We shall suppose that in every period, either all the bonds in a country (say Argentina) deliver fully or else they all default completely forever after. We shall then derive the "implied default probabilities" each year. By seeing the implied default probability curve the general public can deduce what the traders think the probability of default is in any year, assuming that they the traders care only about the expected number of dollars they make. You may not know whether things are getting worse or better in Argentina. But by looking at Argentine bond prices, you can deduce what well-informed traders think. Putting the same thing di f erently, if you believe that you have a very reliable estimate of the probability of default in Chile (say because you keep up with your Yale classmate who is now their minister of f nance), and if your estimate di f ers from what the market thinks, then you can bet on the di f erence and make risky arbitrage pro f ts. If you think the chances are 5% and the market thinks they are 10%, then you will be able to buy the bonds at a price that on average gives you a higher than the riskless rate of return (American interest rate). Of course if the bond defaults you will lose a lot of money. Finding the default probabilities sounds complicated, but in fact it is a very simple perturbation of what we did to f nd the yield curve in the last chapter. One fairly recent new security is called a credit derivative. It pays $1 if an Ar- gentine bond defaults on a particular date, or at any time before a particular date. To price such a security is straightforward, once you have the default probabilities. To
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13_Default_Curve - Default Curve 1 Introduction Starting...

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