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US FHB model - Epidemiology Risk Assessment Models for...

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428 PHYTOPATHOLOGY Epidemiology Risk Assessment Models for Wheat Fusarium Head Blight Epidemics Based on Within-Season Weather Data E. D. De Wolf, L. V. Madden, and P. E. Lipps First author: Department of Plant Pathology, The Pennsylvania State University, Buckhout Laboratory, University Park 16802; and second and third authors: Department of Plant Pathology, The Ohio State University/OARDC, 1680 Madison Ave., Wooster 44691. Accepted for publication 12 November 2002. ABSTRACT De Wolf, E. D., Madden, L. V., and Lipps, P. E. 2003. Risk assessment models for wheat Fusarium head blight epidemics based on within- season weather data. Phytopathology 93:428-435. Logistic regression models for wheat Fusarium head blight were de- veloped using information collected at 50 location-years, including four states, representing three different U.S. wheat-production regions. Non- parametric correlation analysis and stepwise logistic regression analysis identified combinations of temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall or durations of specified weather conditions, for 7 days prior to anthesis, and 10 days beginning at crop anthesis, as potential predictor variables. Prediction accuracy of developed logistic regression models ranged from 62 to 85%. Models suitable for application as a disease warning system were identified based on model prediction accuracy, sensitivity, specifi- city, and availability of weather variables at crop anthesis. Four of the identified models correctly classified 84% of the 50 location-years. A fifth model that used only pre-anthesis weather conditions correctly classified 70% of the location-years. The most useful predictor variables were the duration (h) of precipitation 7 days prior to anthesis, duration (h) that temperature was between 15 and 30°C 7 days prior to anthesis, and the duration (h) that temperature was between 15 and 30°C and relative humidity was greater than or equal to 90%. When model per- formance was evaluated with an independent validation set ( n = 9), prediction accuracy was only 6% lower than the accuracy for the original data sets. These results indicate that narrow time periods around crop anthesis can be used to predict Fusarium head blight epidemics. Additional keywords : disease forecasting, Fusarium graminearium , Gibberella zeae , head scab. Epidemics of Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused by Gibberella zeae (Schwein.) Petch (anamorph: Fusarium graminearium Schwabe), have had a deleterious impact on wheat ( Triticum aestivum L. em. Thell) production in many regions of North America. Accounts of severe epidemics of FHB, or scab, were recorded by pioneering plant pathologists, such as J. C. Arthur (4), A. D. Selby (26), and others (1,5,25) during the late 1800s and early 1900s. In recent years, epidemics of FHB have occurred in many wheat-producing states of the United States, including North Dakota, Minnesota, South Dakota, Ohio, Indiana, Michi- gan, Missouri, Kansas, and Arkansas (16). Epidemics of FHB result in severe losses through direct reduction in grain yield and increased grain cleaning costs (16). Fusarium-damaged grain is of particular concern because of mycotoxins (i.e., deoxynivalenol)
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