0857600338 - From: Arnulf GRUBLER...

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From: Arnulf GRUBLER <gruebler@iiasa.ac.at> To: naki@iiasa.ac.at, becon@public3.bta.net.cn, ja_edmonds@pnl.gov, hm_pitcher@pnl.gov, Fewewar@ternet.pl, t-morita@nies.go.jp, rob.swart@rivm.nl, alcamo@usf.uni-kassel.de, knut.alfsen@cicero.uio.no, kennethgregory@compuserve.com, akimoto@atmchem.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp, amann@iiasa.ac.at, Jean- Paul.Hettelingh@rivm.nl, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, schlesin@uiatma.atmos.uiuc.edu, streetsd@anl.gov, wagner@iiasa.ac.at Subject: sulfur discussion paper Date: Wed, 05 Mar 1997 17:18:58 +0000 Sulfur Emissions in New IPCC Scenarios Arnulf Gruebler, IIASA SUMMARY OF PROPOSED ACTIVITIES 1. Review and comments of present sulfur discussion paper 2. Revision by sulfur paper lead author 3. Preparation of comparison of regional sulfur scenarios (by lead author with inputs from other members of writing team and experts) Timing: August 1997. 4. Specification of minimum and desirable sulfur emission scenario characteristics and specification (for modeling teams in open process) 5. Establishment of key relationships between sulfur emissions and other salient scenario driving force variables (income, technological change environmental, non-GHG policies) using the simple metric of sulfur to carbon emission ratios. 6. Adoption of specific sulfur control scenarios in conformity with overall scenario ``storylines''. 7. Distribution of ``template'' sulfur scenarios to selected modeling teams for assessment of climate and acidification impacts of sulfur scenarios. Timing: End of 1997. DISCUSSION PAPER 1. Introduction The purpose of this discussion paper is to review briefly the assumptions on sulfur emissions in the IS92 IPCC scenarios, advances in knowledge and modeling of future sulfur emission scenarios since IS92, as well as to initiate a discussion on how to incorporate future sulfur emissions trends into the new IPCC emissions scenarios. The present draft will be revised based on feedback received within the members of the IPCC writing team as well as additional outside experts. 2. Sulfur emissions in IS92 The treatment of sulfur emissions in the IS92 scenarios was comprehensive. In addition to the dominant energy sector emissions, also sulfur emissions from industrial processes and land-use changes (biomass burning) and (a constant flow) of natural sources were
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included in the scenarios. 1990 base year values in IS92 were as follows in MtS (Million tons, or Tg, elemental sulfur; to obtain weight as SO2 multiply by 2.): Energy Sector: 65 MtS Other Industry: 8 MtS Biomass burning: 2 MtS Natural: 22 MtS TOTAL: 98 MtS These global base year values are well within the range given by global sulfur emission inventories of 4 to 45 MtS natural sources and 65 to 90 MtS anthropogenic sources in 1990 (IPCC, 1995:135-141). A comparison of 1990 base year sulfur emission values from a number
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This note was uploaded on 12/16/2009 for the course CLMT 0032456 taught by Professor Ellison during the Spring '09 term at Abraham Baldwin Agricultural College.

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0857600338 - From: Arnulf GRUBLER...

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