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0900972000 - From [email protected] To...

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From: [email protected] To: [email protected] Subject: Scenarios issues Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 18:00 +0000 (GMT) Dear colleagues, I will like to post here some correspondence which is clearly relevant for this "scenarios discussion group" regarding some issues related to the use of the new emission scenarios, simple models, etc. Please post any comments on these issues or any other issue that you may want to raise to the following address "[email protected]". I have added the following experts to the list posted in my first Email: P Wagner R Watson J Edmonds S Smith G Marland Many thanks. Maria Noguer *********************************** Issues raised by J Mitchell: 1. There are several uses for scenarios: a) Conversion to concentration using chemistry models to produce forcing curves b) Forcings for GCM runs c) Use in simpler models to produce global mean curves of concentrations, forcing, temperature and sea level. This would requires a simple model which is documented and calibrated against one (preferably several) climate models. The final IPCC approved scenarios will not be available until February 2000, so we should decide now on which draft scenarios to use 2. The provisional emissions will be made available imminently. These need to be evaluated as there are four basic families and many variants. How is the median scenario defined? 3. What criteria are to be set for the simpler models used for global mean projections? ************************************* Issue raised by Tom Wigley and reponses: Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 11:00:54 -0600 (MDT) From: Tom Wigley <[email protected]> To: Sir John Houghton <[email protected]>, Patricia WAGNER <[email protected]>, Hugh Pitcher <[email protected]>, Robert Watson <[email protected]> Cc: Jae Edmonds <[email protected]>, Mike Hulme <[email protected]>, Atul Jain <[email protected]>, Fortunat Joos <[email protected]>, Richard Richels <[email protected]>, Dave Schimel <[email protected]>, [email protected] Subject: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios
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Dear Bob, Hugh, Naki and John, Mike Hulme has told me something that is quite alarming about the soon-to-be-released 'IPCC' CO2 emissions scenarios. If this is correct, you/IPCC should try to remedy it as a matter of some urgency. He said that the new 'IPCC' CO2 emissions scenarios will still begin in 1990 and will not use observed (Marland) emissions for the 1990s. You may either not realize, or not remember, that during the preparation of the SAR and (especially) TPs 2 and 4, IPCC was frequently criticized for using out-of-date emissions data that were manifestly wrong during the 1990s. It would be extremely embarrassing to be subject to the same
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