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L20JDM2.6slides - Lecture Outline Issues(a What heuristics...

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Page 1 Lecture Outline Issues: (a) What heuristics do people use? (b) What errors are common? 1. Availability heuristic What it is, problems 2. Simulation heuristic What it is, importance of causal links 3. Conjunction fallacy What it is, how it can be explained 4. Framing effect 5. Conclusions People use non-normative heuristics Reduce complexity of task but produce errors Demo: List of Names You ʼ ll see a list of names You ʼ ll then be asked to make a judgment about the list Which was more common: male names or female names? Famous names experiment Group 1: 20 famous male names 20 less famous females Group 2: 20 famous female names 20 less famous males Recall Frequency Estimate 10 8 6 4 2 10 8 6 4 2 30 20 10 30 20 10 Group 1: Famous Males vs. Females Group 2: Famous Females vs. Males Male names Male names Female names Female names Male names Male names Female names Female names Availability “A person is said to employ the availability heuristic whenever he estimates frequency or probability by the ease with which instances or associations could be brought to mind.” --Tversky and Kahneman (1973)
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Page 2 Subjects given category: Russian novelists vs. flowers Either: Subjects given 7 seconds to estimate how many they could retrieve in 2 minutes. Or: Subjects given 2 minutes to retrieve as many examples as possible. Result: Correlation between estimate and retrieval nearly perfect. For each of the following pairs of lethal events, judge which one is the more frequently occurring in this country: breast cancer versus diabetes stomach cancer versus lung cancer strokes versus all types of accidents tornados versus asthma For each of the following pairs of lethal events, judge which one is the more frequently occurring in this country: breast cancer versus diabetes stomach cancer versus lung cancer strokes versus all types of accidents tornados versus asthma Subjects ʼ choices shown in yellow X = laundry = dishes = cleaning the house = scooping the cat litter etc.
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