ES 9_21_09 Systems Science

ES 9_21_09 Systems Science - Systems Models Computer Models...

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9/24/09 1 How the Process of Science Works Scientists must not only CONFIRM their hypotheses, but also must make sure that nothing NEGATES their hypotheses; the answers come from a preponderance of supporting data with no negating data More than one way to do science • Reductionism and Systems Analysis
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9/24/09 2 Commonly misused words • Scientific Question – Observation, experimentation • Data – VERIFIABLE, “Facts” • Law – WHAT - based on data, always happens (so far) • Theory – WHY - best answer based on all data - nothing negates this explanation (yet) • Model – USEFUL representation or tool for prediction
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Unformatted text preview: Systems Models Computer Models Mathematical Representations - simulation models Equations Coefficients Scenario Analysis - what if? 9/24/09 3 Why are systems so hard to manage? Complexity Feedback loops Positive feedback Negative feedback Unknown connections and hierarchies Time Lags and Distance Effects Linear vs. Nonlinear relationships Unpredictability and probability stochastic behavior and variance Human Population How many people are on the planet? How fast is the human population growing?...
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ES 9_21_09 Systems Science - Systems Models Computer Models...

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