ES 9_21_09 Systems Science

ES 9_21_09 Systems Science - Systems Models • Computer...

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9/24/09 1 How the Process of Science Works Scientists must not only CONFIRM their hypotheses, but also must make sure that nothing NEGATES their hypotheses; the answers come from a preponderance of supporting data with no negating data More than one way to do science • Reductionism and Systems Analysis
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9/24/09 2 Commonly misused words • Scientific Question – Observation, experimentation • Data – VERIFIABLE, “Facts” • Law – WHAT - based on data, always happens (so far) • Theory – WHY - best answer based on all data - nothing negates this explanation (yet) • Model – USEFUL representation or tool for prediction
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Unformatted text preview: Systems Models • Computer Models – Mathematical Representations - simulation models • Equations • Coefficients – Scenario Analysis - “what if…?” 9/24/09 3 Why are systems so hard to manage? • Complexity – Feedback loops • Positive feedback • Negative feedback – Unknown connections and hierarchies • Time Lags and Distance Effects • Linear vs. Nonlinear relationships • Unpredictability and probability – stochastic behavior and variance Human Population • How many people are on the planet? • How fast is the human population growing?...
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ES 9_21_09 Systems Science - Systems Models • Computer...

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