ES 9_16_09 Science

ES 9_16_09 Science - • Data – VERIFIABLE, “Facts”...

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9/21/09 1 Science and Values • Using science for decision making – Science - what • what is happening/will happen and solution options – Values - what to do • “What will we do about the increase in our own species and its impact on our planet and our future?” • Precautionary Principle Assumptions of the Process of Science • We perceive reality with our five basic senses • Objective reality functions according to certain basic principles and laws • Causes and effects are explainable • We have tools and capabilities to understand basic principles and natural laws
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9/21/09 2 How the Process of Science Works Scientists must not only CONFIRM their hypotheses, but also must make sure that nothing NEGATES their hypotheses; the answers come from a preponderance of supporting data with no negating data Commonly misused words • Scientific Question – Observation, experimentation
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Unformatted text preview: • Data – VERIFIABLE, “Facts” • Law – WHAT - based on data, always happens (so far) • Theory – WHY - best answer based on all data - nothing negates this explanation (yet) • Model – USEFUL representation or tool for prediction 9/21/09 3 More than one way to do science • Reductionism and Systems Analysis Example: Health • Reductionism and Systems Analysis 9/21/09 4 Systems Models • Computer Models – Mathematical Representations - simulation models • Equations • Coefficients – Scenario Analysis - “what if…?” Why are systems so hard to manage? • Complexity – Feedback loops • Positive feedback • Negative feedback – Unknown connections and hierarchies • Time Lags and Distance Effects • Linear vs. Nonlinear relationships • Unpredictability and probability – stochastic behavior and variance 9/21/09 5 Why are systems so hard to manage?...
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This note was uploaded on 12/26/2009 for the course LSP T07.5005.0 taught by Professor Caseyking during the Fall '09 term at NYU.

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ES 9_16_09 Science - • Data – VERIFIABLE, “Facts”...

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