9 IPS Notes

9 IPS Notes - I PS Notes 2/10 Application of Commitment...

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IPS Notes 2/10 Application of Commitment Problems: The Second Gulf War Thursday: we’ll get 2 nd paper topics due next Thursday Fearon and Powell: wars can occur for one of two reasons: o These two are some of the best researchers on this subject o 1. Private info and incentives to withhold or misrepresent if this, then war is a result of uncertainty o 2. One of both sides unable to credibly commit to the terms of a peace agreement fill in o We are going to show that these two are very different problems, with different solutions. This will help with policy prescriptions People often conflate commitment and information problems o They think that if a leader sends a costly signal, she is also credibly committing to a particular action o But Bush mobilizing forces along Kuwait border a costly signal of intentions, but not a credible commitment to a negotiated settlement o Signaling is not the same as committing! o Credible signals are not credible commitments o Commitments only refer to a deal Think about it this way: o IP is the sum of lots of competitive interactions btw countries over lots of issues: Strategic arms limitation talks Int’l coffee agreemnts Product standardization agreements o IP is all about bargaining The problem is, most people conceptualize bargaining as a one- step process U get together, u talk, u reach (or don’t reach) a deal People assume bargaining is all about reaching a deal o If u don’t reach a bargain, it’s because you couldn’t resolve your underlying differences
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But empirically we know that conflicts often don’t end when a bargain is reached (and even signed) o In fact only about half of all the civil war peace treaties are signed ever bring peace (are implemented) o In order to understand the difference between information problems and commitment problems you have to understand o 3 step process: fighting phase: u first have to agree to initiate negotiations (Clausowitzian phase) (info probs here) collecting information about one another o who’ll win o how the goodies being fought over ought to be divided no settlement can ever be reached unless the parties first
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This note was uploaded on 12/27/2009 for the course IRPS IRCO 410 taught by Professor Barbarawalter during the Winter '09 term at UCSD.

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9 IPS Notes - I PS Notes 2/10 Application of Commitment...

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