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Unformatted text preview: IPS Notes 2/17/09 • Nuclear Proliferation is THE issue because it can kill more people than terrorism • Proliferation is really hard to stop and it’s increasing (albeit slowly) • Why do some states build nuclear weapons? • Why do most states NOT choose to build nuclear weapons? • What can int’l community do to stop, limit, or slow down proliferation? Disincentives? How to convince those states that want nukes otherwise? • Nuclear Proliferation o Basic Facts: o Proliferation has already occurred (US, Russia, France, Britain, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and N. Korea) o Weapons grade materials like plutonium is most difficult to get o Missile delivery system is the hardest part o Could easily expand (Jpn, Canada, Australia, Germany (only started the process; best scientists were Jewish and fled to US and USSR)) have ability to build them fairly quickly and easily (within a year) o Other states want nukes (Iran, I raq, Syria, Libya) o Other states that might want them under certain conditions: (Saudi Arabia (very wealthy but weak military so nukes could help it compensate), S. Korea (threat from DPRK and China), Taiwan (threat from China), Egypt (sees itself as leader of Arab world and might want weapons for image/protection) o Proliferation can be reversed: (South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus) Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus had nukes left over from USSR days (no time to take them out) • Why do some countries build nukes? o Realists say it’s all about security The need to balance • If a states feels extremely threatened, it may see nukes as its only defense • Especially t rue if the perceived threat is nuclear (Germany US USSR China India Pakistan) (Israel Iraq (desire) Iran (desire) ) proliferation moved from one state to an enemy state to another enemy state, etc. • Or if it cannot compete using conventional forces (Pakistan (fewer resources than India), DPRK (fewer resources), Saudi Arabia (small, weak army)) o But this doesn’t explain everything: (need to fill in holes in argument) Can’t explain variation in the countries that build and don’t build • Countries with hi levels of insecurity but no nukes (Germany, Jpn, Ukraine) • Countries with money and tech to build, but no nukes (Saudi...
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This note was uploaded on 12/27/2009 for the course IRPS IRCO 410 taught by Professor Barbarawalter during the Winter '09 term at UCSD.
- Winter '09