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Homework4Solutions - Homework 2 Solutions Problem 1. Here...

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Unformatted text preview: Homework 2 Solutions Problem 1. Here is an adaptation of limits to growth, assuming no investment takes place and the limiting condition (highly skilled engineers) remains fixed. If, on the other hand, we assume that the limiting condition can be removed by investing in second and third tier universities, we can fit a “Growth & Underinvestment” archetype, as shown below. Business Dynamics Instructor’s Manual Chapter 5 Pgoals. In response to the possibility of higher family size without access to state-supplied roblem 2. Challenge “Identifying the Feedback Structure of Policy Resistance” from the textbook contraception and abortion, the people of Romania compensated through a variety of processes. The Romanian population policies discussed in the text, can be easily captured using a “Fixes that The main responses are shown in the diagram roughly in the order of preference. First, women Backfire” archetype, as shown below (Solutions from J. D. Sterman). Secondary effects (hidden feedback) could abstain from sex or defer the age of marriage. They could use alternative methods of are depicted as under the water effects (iceberg?). east block countries. They resorted to contraception and smuggle devices and pills in from other The top part of Exhibit 5‐20 shows the intended rationali“care” the failed Romanian population policy described in the text). They could abandon unwanted children to the ty of of the state. Finally, banning abortions. The mental model of the Ceasescu regime was straightforward: Average family size though there is no strong evidence for it, it is possible that infanticide increased. Infanticide is (and by extension, total Romanian population) was too low. By outlawing abortion and restricting access included in the diagram because, though it may have played little role in the actual case, as a modeler you should include all possible responses people may have to a situation. Infanticide is to contraceptive devices, the birth rate would rise, bringing population closer to the regime’s goal (B0). practiced in many cultures, and if the situation was extreme births remain unchanged. The This mental model assumes other factors affecting enough it might have played a role in reasoning may have this case. Leaving such responses out of the model may cause you to underestimate the strength been simply that if there are x abortions performed in state health clinics now, then banning abortion will of the compensatory feedbacks that lead to x more births per year. may cause policy resistance. + Availability of Abortion and Contraceptive Devices B0 Population Relative to Government Goal + Government Goal for Family Size illegal abortions (as documented by the large increase in mortality among young women Government Mental Model Birth Rate B1 + Family Size Relative to Desired Individuals' Desired Family Size + Average Family Size Abstinence + B2 Contraception B3 Illegal Abortion B4 Abandonment B5 Infanticide + + + + Additional Feedbacks "Below the Waterline" Exhibit 5-20 Feedbacks responsible for failure of Romanian population policy However, below the waterline, families and women sought to control their own fertility according to their own goals. The government’s policy did nothing to change people’s own goals. In response to the 52 possibility of higher family size without access to state‐supplied contraception and abortion, the people of Romania compensated through a variety of processes. The main responses are shown in the diagram roughly in the order of preference. First, women could abstain from sex or defer the age of marriage. They could use alternative methods of contraception and smuggle devices and pills in from other east block countries. They resorted to illegal abortions (as documented by the large increase in mortality among young women described in the text). They could abandon unwanted children to the “care” of the state. Finally, though there is no strong evidence for it, it is possible that infanticide increased. Infanticide is included in the diagram because, though it may have played little role in the actual case, as a modeler you should include all possible responses people may have to a situation. Infanticide is practiced in many cultures, and if the situation was extreme enough it might have played a role in this case. Leaving such responses out of the model may cause you to underestimate the strength of the compensatory feedbacks that may cause policy resistance. ...
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