Aging Chains

Aging Chains - EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy...

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EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I
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EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 2 • Aging chains are used to model aging processes, i.e., how entities, and their associated attributes, change over time. • We can find examples in the VCR models, the HIV/ AIDS model. • We need to discuss with detail some of the key applications of this models. • Let’s begin with an example.
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EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 3 In a simple productivity model. In this simple model it is difficult to track changes in worker attributes; e.g., the skill level of employees. Using the pulse function, we can model a “downsizing” of 5 workers in the company after 6 months of simulated time. What are the shortcomings? 4:38 PM Tue, Nov 21, 2006 Untitled Page 1 0.00 6.00 12.00 18.00 24.00 Months 1: 450 475 500 1: Productivity 1 1 1 1 Workers Fired Hired Productivity Productivity per Worker Labor Force Target Hiring Time
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EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 4 • We can decompose the “Workers” into those that are being trained, and regular workers. Workers Fired Hired Productivity Productivity per Worker Labor Force Target Hiring Time Graduated Total Workers Training Graduation Rate
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EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 5 On a typical job, people will improve with experience, we can capture this by modeling more categories of workers: Veteran Fired Hired Productivity Productivity per Veteran Labor Force Target Hiring Time Graduated Total Workers Training Graduation Rate Gain Experience Rookies Experience Rate Productivity per Rookie
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EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 6 Cohort 1 Cohort 2 Inflow Cohort 1 Outflow Cohort 1 Cohort 2 Outflow Cohort 2 Cohort n Cohort n Outflow Cohort n Transition Rate Cohort 1 to 2 Transition Rate Cohort 2 to 3 Transition Rate Cohort n minus 1 to n Usually formulated as first order delay: T(i,i+1)=C(i)/YPC(i) YPC(i)=Average years per cohort O(i)=C(i)*FDR(i) FDR(i) = fractional death rate of cohort i
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EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 7 New Enteprise Mature Business Declining Industry New Enterprise Construction New Enterprise Decline Mature Business Decline Declining Demolition Premium Housing Worker Housing Underemployed Housing Premium Housing Construction Housing Obsolescence Worker Housing Obsolescence Slum Housing Demolition Worker Housing Construction
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EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 8 Managerial Professional Labor Under employed Departures Labor to Manager Underemployed to Labor Underemployed Arrivals Labor Births Managerial Underemployed Underemployed Departures Labor Labor Departures
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EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 9 • In real life, human mortality rates are strongly age dependent .
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Aging Chains - EMSE 235: Systems Thinking and Policy...

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