Causal Loop Diagrams

Causal Loop Diagrams - Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling...

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Unformatted text preview: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 1 EMSE 135/235: Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 2 Causal Diagram Notation Guidelines for Causal Loop Diagrams Example: Managing the Workload Peter Senges Archetypes: Natures Templates Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 3 Important and succinct tool for representing the feedback structure of a system. Can be used for Quickly capturing your hypothesis about the causes of dynamics. Eliciting and capturing the mental models of individuals or teams. Communicating the important feedbacks you believe are responsible for a problem. Conventions are simple, but try to follow them . Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 4 B R Fractional Birth Rate Average Lifetime Death Rate- + + +- Birth Rate Population + Birth Rate Population + Variable Variable Causal Link Link Polarity Loop Identifer: Positive (ReinForcing) Loop or R + Loop Identifer: Negative (Balancing) Loop or B- Example Key Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 5 Label the polarity of all links and important feedback loops. Customer Loss Rate Customer Base Sales from Word of Mouth Incorrect R B Customer Loss Rate Customer Base Sales from Word of Mouth- + + + Correct Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 6 Symbol Interpretation Mathematics Examples X Y + All else equal, if X increases (decreases), then Y increases (decreases) above what it would have been. In the case of accumulations, X adds to Y. Y/ X > 0 In the case of accumulations, Y = (X + ... )ds + Y t t t Product Quality + Sales Effort + Results Births + Population X Y- All else equal, if X increases (decreases), then Y decreases (increases) below what it would have been. In the case of accumulations, X subtracts from Y. Y/ X < 0 In the case of accumulations, Y = (-X + ... )ds + Y t t t Product Price- Sales Frustration- Results Deaths- Population Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling I 7 To assess the polarity of individual links, assume all other variables are constant ( ceteris paribus ). For instance to label the link between Sales from Word of Mouth and Customer Base we reason as follows: if all other variables remain constant (Customer Loss Rates), and improvement in Sales from WOM will result in a bigger Customer Base , or a positive polarity....
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Causal Loop Diagrams - Systems Thinking and Policy Modeling...

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