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08 Cond Prob - Ind - Go over HW#2 Test Next Friday February...

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1/5/10 Go over HW #2 Test – Next Friday, February 6 Homework 3 due Wednesday February 4 Will go over HW #3 that Wednesday
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1/5/10 Example Workers in a nuclear power plant are classified into three groups based on their exposure to radiation, High, Medium and Low. In the plant, 10% fall in to the "high” group, 50% into "medium" and 40% into "low". Studies have shown that cancer rates are related to radiation exposure as
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1/5/10 Using Sets H M L C Canc er Not Canc er Tot High 10 90 100 Med 10 490 500 Low 4 396 400 Tot 24 976 100 0
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1/5/10 Using Probability Tree P(H) = .1 P(M) = .5 P(L) = .4 P(C| M) =.02 P(C’| M) =.98 P(C|L) =.1 P(C’|L) =.99 P(C|H) =.1 P(C’| M) =.9
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1/5/10 P(Cancer) = P(Cancer and High) + P(Cancer and Medium) + P(Cancer and Low) = 0.01 + 0.01 + 0.004 = 0.024 Note that we can multiply probabilities in trees even when P(A) P(B|A) P(C|A and B) P(A and B and C)
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1/5/10 Example The previous was observed from 50 years of historical data. Let A = "Jan power consumption above average" Let B = " Orange juice production below average" January Power Consumption in Florida Orange Juice Productio n Above Avg. Below Avg.
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