sup5 - ANRV292-ES37-23 ARI 17 October 2006 7:35 Annu Rev...

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Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change Camille Parmesan Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712; email: [email protected] Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2006. 37:637–69 First published online as a Review in Advance on August 24, 2006 The Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics is online at http://ecolsys.annualreviews.org This article’s doi: 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100 Copyright c 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved 1543-592X/06/1201-0637$20.00 Key Words aquatic, global warming, phenology, range shift, terrestrial, trophic asynchrony Abstract Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between cli- mate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect inter- actions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer condi- tions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level. 637 Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2006.37:637-669. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org by University of California - Davis on 06/22/07. For personal use only.
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INTRODUCTION Historical Perspective Climate change is not a new topic in biology. The study of biological impacts of cli- mate change has a rich history in the scientific literature, since long before there were political ramifications. Grinnell (1917) first elucidated the role of climatic thresholds in constraining the geographic boundaries of many species, followed by major works by Andrewartha & Birch (1954) and MacArthur (1972). Observations of range shifts in parallel with climate change have been particularly rich in northern European countries, where observational records for many birds, butterflies, herbs, and trees date back to the mid-1700s. Since the early part of the twentieth century, researchers have documented the sensitivity of insects to spring and summer temperatures (Bale et al. 2002, Dennis 1993, Uvarov 1931). Ford (1945) described northward range shifts of several butterflies in England, attributing these shifts to a summer warm- ing trend that began around 1915 in Britain. Ford noted that one of these species, Limenitis camilla, expanded to occupy an area where attempted introductions prior to the warming had failed. Kaisila (1962) independently documented range shifts of
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