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# May_25 [Compatibility Mode] - Monday May 25th Today we'll...

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Monday, May 25th Today we'll: eview some things from Friday - Review some things from Friday - 14.1 Alternative Conceptions of Probability - 14.2 The Probability Calculus - 14.3 Probability in Everyday Life

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Review On Friday, we talked about two criteria that characterize scientific inquiry: - Attitude: Scientific explanations are always revisable - Basis: Scientific explanations are based on empirical testing Remember the great problem of induction – that you can't derive with certainty from particular instances a general explanation that covers all cases. or example, I can't conclude with certainty, that just - For example, I can't conclude with certainty, that just because every swan I've seen is white, that all swans are white. I can only say that with certainty about swans I've seen.
Review 2 All we can do are look for counter-examples to our general explanations, and hope we don't find any. So, we have to test our scientific explanations against empirical evidence, in order to see if we can find exceptions to our explanations. To this end, we talked about 7 steps to loosely guide our development of scientific explanations: A) Identifying the Problem, B) Devising Preliminary Hypotheses, C) Collecting dditional Facts, D) Formulating an Explanatory Hypothesis, F) Additional Facts, D) Formulating an Explanatory Hypothesis, F) Deducing Further Consequences, F) Testing the Consequences, and G) Applying the Theory There's also three criteria for good theories. These are: 1) Compatibility, 2) Predictive power, and 3) Simplicity.

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14.1 Probability Inductive arguments can only ever have conclusions that are more or less likely – which is to say, more or less probably. Thus, it's good to be able to assess probability, in order to assess the likelihood of the conclusions of inductive argumens. Hypotheses are said to have varying degrees of probability of
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May_25 [Compatibility Mode] - Monday May 25th Today we'll...

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