MontrealTreatyCaseStudy

MontrealTreatyCaseStudy - Case
Study:
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Unformatted text preview: Case
Study:
 Ozone
Deple3on
 and
 The
Montreal
Protocol
 A
Success
Story?
 •  Regulates
a
globally
dispersed
pollutant
with
 non‐trivial
residence
3mes.

 •  Determined
differen3ated
target
schedules
 between
developing
and
developed
countries.
 •  Funded
a
mechanism
for
developing
country
 adop3on.
 •  Remains
flexible
in
light
of
new
findings.

 Stratospheric
Ozone
 A
Necessary
Condi3on
for
 
 Life
on
Earth 
 






Life
Possible 
 
 
 
 
 
All
Dead
 Dr.
Thomas
Midgley,
Jr.:
 A
Nice
Guy
Causes
a
HUGE
Problem!
 •  1888‐1944
 •  Engineer
turned
chemist
 •  Rose
to
top
of
his
profession
 (President
of
ACS)
 •  Held
over
100
patents,
 including:
 •  leaded
gasoline
 •  CFCs
in
aerosol
cans!
 Uses 
 •  CFC‐11:

refrigerant
and
aerosol
(“freon”: 
~50%
of
ozone
deple3on).
 •  CFC‐13:
slovent,
for
cleaning
computer
circuit 
boards.
 •  Halons:
fire
ex3nguishers.
 How
To
Fry
All
Life: 
 Did
I
say,
“Homo
sapiens
sapiens”? 
 Global
Produc3on
of
CFCs
 Decline
in
Consump3on
of

 O3
Deple3ng
Substances
 Piecing
Together
the
Puzzle
 •  Science:
theory
 •  Science:
observa3ons
 •  Poli3cal
Economy:
gebng
an
 

 
agreement
 Science:
Theory 
 •  Really
began
with
paper
by
Mario
Molina
and 
Serwood
Rowland
in
1974.
 •  A
theore3cal
chemistry
ar3cle.
 •  Showed
how
CFCs
could
destroy
ozone
(O3)
 •  Typical
chlorine
atom
likely
to
go
through
this 
destruc3ve
process

100,000
3mes
before 
something
else
happened
to
it.
 •  Awarded
Nobel
Prize
in
Chemistry,
1995.
 Science:
Evidence
(1) 
 •  In
1981,
Bri3sh
scien3st,
Joseph
Farman,
using 
a
Dobson’s
spectrophotometer
(invented
in 
1926)
measured
a
decline
of
ozone
of
some 
20%
at
Halley
Bay,
Antarc3ca.
 •  Seemed
to
go
in
seasonal
cycles.
 •  Published
his
work
in
1985.
 Evidence
(2) 
 •  NASA’s
Nimbus‐7
weather
satellite
 •  Launched
in
1978.
 •  Included
a
TOMS:
Total
Ozone
Mapping 
Spectrometer.
 •  Orbit
over
the
poles.

 “Drinking
from
a
Fire
Hose”
 •  Nimbus
programmed
to
report
only
 observa3ons
between
650
and
180
ppm.
 •  If
observa3on
<
180,
“threw
out”
data.
 •  Actually,
(and
very
fortunately!)
all
raw
data
 was
archived.
 •  Ajer
Farman’s
ar3cle,
went
back
to
the
raw
 data,
which
confirmed
what
he
had
found.
 Poli3cal
Economy
 Elements
for
an
Agreement:
 1.
Concentra3on
by
Country
 •  US
+
Japan
+
USSR
=
47%
of
 produc3on
 •  12
countries:
78%
of
produc3on
 •  30%
of
total:
U.S.
 Elements
for
an
Agreement:
 2.
Concentra3on
by
Company
 •  •  •  •  •  •  5
firms:
100%
of
produc3on
 DuPont:
49%
 Allied
Signal:
25%
 Pennwalt:
13%
 Kaiser
Chemical:
9%
 Racon:
4%
 Elements
for
an
Agreement:
 3.
Mollifying
the
Big
Guy
 •  •  •  •  DuPont
Chemical
 Three
factors:
 Less
than
2%
of
all
sales
from
CFCs,
1986
 Discovery
of
subs3tutes—especially,
HCFCs
 and
HFCs
 –  Thought
that
risk
from
HCFCs
lower

 –  Probably:
only
because
don’t
last
as
long
as
CFCs
 •  DuPont
thought
the
shij
would
ENHANCE
its
 compe33veness
vs
rivals.
 Elements
for
an
Agreement:
 4.
Persuading
Poli3cians
 •  EPA
Report,
1987:
US
would
gain,
 even if it acted alone. •  No “poten1al winners” from ozone deple1on. •  Not central to economy. Con3nuing
Issues
 •  Ozone
layer
may
stabilize
by
next
year
 (op3mis3c
forecast).
 •  Will
not
return
to
1970
level
un3l
~2065.
 •  So,
for
~
100
years,
we
will
have
lived
with
a
 depleted
ozone
layer.
 •  Smuggling
remains
an
issue.
 •  Good
news:
produc3on
requires
large
plants,
 which
are
rela3vely
easier
to
monitor.
 Trends
in
Observed
Tropospheric
 Concentra6on
of
Ozone‐Deple6ng
 Substances

 hqp://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/337
 ...
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