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Unformatted text preview: a third time to the same person and get the same answer, what is the probability this is correct? (d) You ask for the fourth time and receive the answer East. Show that the probability it is correct is 27/70. (e) Show that had the fourth answer been West instead, the probability that East is nevertheless correct is 9/10. 8. Recall the previous problem. Tom is in the same position as you, but he has reason to believe that with probability ǫ East is the correct answer. Show that (a) whatever answer Frst received Tom continues to believe that East is correct with probability ǫ , (b) if the Frst two replies are the same (i.e. EE or WW) then Tom continues to believe that East is correct with probability ǫ , (c) after three like answers, Tom will calculate as follows P (East correct | EEE ) = 9 ǫ 11 − 2 ǫ , P (East correct | WWW ) = 11 ǫ 9 + 2 ǫ . 1...
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This note was uploaded on 01/13/2010 for the course STATS 116 taught by Professor Staff during the Spring '07 term at Stanford.
- Spring '07