Unformatted text preview: contradiction became known as the Paradox of the Chevalier de Mere. (1) Visit the Probability link under simulation on the class website. Select Chapter 1, where you will ﬁnd links to DeMere1 and DeMere2. DeMere1 simulates the ﬁrst bet, DeMere2 the second. Use these to ﬁnd, by simulation, the chance of winning the bets; recall that 100 replications has about a 5% margin of error, while 10,000 replications has about a 1% margin of error. (2) Notice that De Mere has reasoned in a way that suggests certain events are exclusive, so he added the chance of an ace 4 times and the chance of a double ace 24 times. Is he correct? (3) Find the correct probabilities. Hint: In 4 rolls of a die, for example, the chance of at one ace is 1 minus the chance of no aces. (4) If you have made it this far, and you have general solutions to the problem, then show that your calculations conﬁrm the results of your simulations. 1...
View
Full Document
 Spring '09
 PHELAN
 Statistics, Probability, Dice, Chevalier de Méré, double ace

Click to edit the document details