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Unformatted text preview: contradiction became known as the Paradox of the Chevalier de Mere. (1) Visit the Probability link under simulation on the class website. Select Chapter 1, where you will nd links to DeMere1 and DeMere2. DeMere1 simulates the rst bet, DeMere2 the second. Use these to nd, by simulation, the chance of winning the bets; recall that 100 replications has about a 5% margin of error, while 10,000 replications has about a 1% margin of error. (2) Notice that De Mere has reasoned in a way that suggests certain events are exclusive, so he added the chance of an ace 4 times and the chance of a double ace 24 times. Is he correct? (3) Find the correct probabilities. Hint: In 4 rolls of a die, for example, the chance of at one ace is 1 minus the chance of no aces. (4) If you have made it this far, and you have general solutions to the problem, then show that your calculations conrm the results of your simulations. 1...
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This note was uploaded on 01/21/2010 for the course STATS 37850 taught by Professor Phelan during the Spring '09 term at UC Irvine.
- Spring '09