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# ch11_slides - LINEAR REGRESSION AND CORRELATION •...

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Unformatted text preview: LINEAR REGRESSION AND CORRELATION • Consider bivariate data consisting of ordered pairs of numerical values ( x, y ). • Often such data arise by setting an x variable at certain fixed values (which we will call levels ) and taking a random sample from the population of Y that is assumed to exist at each of the levels of x . • Here we are thinking of x as not being a random variable , because we are considering only selected fixed values of x (for sampling purposes). • However, Y is a random variable and we define Y on the population that exists at each level of x . 1 • Graphically, a scatterplot of the data depicting the y-values obtained by sampling the populations at each of the pre- selected x-values might appear as follows:- 6 r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r x y 2 Our objectives given such data are usually twofold: • Summarize the characteristics of the Y populations across values of x – Fit the Model • Interpolate between levels of X to estimate parameters of Y populations from which samples were not taken – Prediction • The center of our attention is usually on the means of the Y populations, E ( Y ) , and especially their relationship to one another . • Considering various relationships among these population means is called parametric modeling . 3 • The simple linear regression model says that the populations at each x-value are normally distributed and that the means of these normal distributions all fall on a straight line, called the regression line. • Chapters 11 and 12 are mostly about investigating to what extent the relationship among the population means is linear . 4 • Let us begin by considering a linear relationship among population means. • The equation of a straight line through means E ( Y ) across x-values can be written as E ( Y ) = β + β 1 x • Here β is the intercept and β 1 is the slope of the line.- 6 x E(Y) ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! β β 1 1 5 • The y-values observed at each x-value is assumed to be a random sample from a normal distribution with the mean E ( Y ) = β + β 1 x , i.e., the mean is a linear function of x . • The variance of the normal distributions at each x-value is assumed to be the same (or constant). • Thus the y-values can be related to the x-values through the relationship y = β + β 1 x + (1) • Here is a random variable (called random error ) with mean zero i.e, ( E ( ) = 0) , and variance σ 2 . • This model says that sample values are random distances from the line μ = β + β 1 x at each x-value. 6 • The unknown constants in Equation (1), β , β 1 , and σ 2 are called the parameters of the model. • The next question we consider is “How do we proceed to derive a good approximating line through Y population means, given only samples from some of the Y populations?” • In other words, we need to obtain good estimates of the parameters of the model using the observed data....
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ch11_slides - LINEAR REGRESSION AND CORRELATION •...

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