Complex thinking p - EXP 3604 Complex Thinking: Reasoning,...

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EXP 3604 Complex Thinking: Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision-Making
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Complex Thinking Reasoning-evaluation of conclusion based solely on given information Judgment – must use the given information to arrive at a conclusion Decision-making – make a choice among several possible alternatives
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Focus on Errors Informative Benchmark? Normative approach Descriptive approach
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Deductive vs. Inductive Reasoning Deductive General to specific Inductive Specific to General Given premises, conclusion MUST follow Conclusion is probabilistic
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Deductive Reasoning Conditional reasoning If P, then Q Terminology Antecedent: P Consequent: Q Affirming: Saying true Denying: Saying false
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Premise 2 Operation Conclusion? P is true affirming antecedent Q is true “I’m a senior” “I have to register” P is false denying antecedent ------ “I’m not a senior” Q is true affirming consequent ------ “I have to register” Q is false denying consequent P is false “I don’t have to register” “I’m not a senior” Premise 1: if P, then Q “If I am a senior, then I have to register for classes today” VALID VALID
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Conditional reasoning Example: A farmer plants only five different kinds of vegetables -- beans, corn, kale, peas, and squash. Every year the farmer plants exactly three kinds of vegetables according to the following restrictions:
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Conditional reasoning Example: If the farmer plants corn, the farmer also plants beans that year If the farmer plants kale one year, the farmer does not plant it the other year In any year, the farmer plants no more than one of the vegetables the farmer planted in the other year
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Conditional reasoning Which of the following is a possible sequence for the farmer to plant in 2 successive years? a. Beans, corn, kale; corn, peas, squash b. Beans, corn, peas; beans, corn, squash c. Beans, peas, squash; beans, corn, kale d. Corn, peas, squash; beans, kale, peas e. Kale, peas, squash; beans, corn, kale
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Deductive Reasoning Wason (1968) Selection task People were shown 4 cards and were told each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other Given this rule: If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other Which cards must you turn over to determine if the rule is true or false?
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Wason (1968) Selection task If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other E K 4 7
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Results : 89% correctly turn over the E (affirm antecedent) 16% incorrectly turn over the K (deny
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This note was uploaded on 01/24/2010 for the course PSYCHOLOGY PCO 4930 taught by Professor Perrin during the Fall '09 term at Florida State College.

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Complex thinking p - EXP 3604 Complex Thinking: Reasoning,...

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