handout day4

Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences (with Student Suite Online)

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Winter, 2008 Monday, Jan. 14 Stat 321 – Lecture 4 Probability (2.1) Example 1 (“Monty Hall” Problem): Suppose that on a game show money is hidden behind one door, while pigs are hidden behind two other doors. A contestant picks a door, and then the host reveals what’s behind a different door that he knows to have a pig. Then the host asks whether the contestant prefers to stick with the original door or switch to the remaining door. (a) Prediction : Do you think the probability of winning is different between the “stay” and “switch” strategies? Explain. (b) Investigate these strategies by playing the game a total of 20 times, 10 with each strategy, using the site: http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdvancedMontyHall/ (Click on a door to start the game; then after the host reveals a pig either click on the same door again (“Stay”) or click on the remaining door (“Switch”). Then click on “Reset Doors.”) Won with switching: Won with staying: Lost with switching: Lost with staying: (c) In what proportion of games employing the “stay” strategy did the contestant win? What was this proportion for the “switch” strategy? Does one strategy appear to be superior to the other? (d) Clear the statistics and then specify 1000 runs for the Switch strategy and then 1000 runs for
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This note was uploaded on 01/31/2008 for the course STAT 321 taught by Professor Chance during the Winter '08 term at Cal Poly.

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Handout day4 - Winter 2008 Stat 321 Lecture 4 Probability(2.1 Monday Jan 14 Example 1"Monty Hall Problem Suppose that on a game show money is

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