Chapter 1 - Chapter 1 Making Hard Decisions R T Clemen T...

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Making Hard Decisions R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly Chapter 1 – Introduction to Decision Analysis Lecture Notes by: J.R. van Dorp and T.A. Mazzuchi http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/ Slide 1 of 11 COPYRIGHT © 2006 by GWU Draft: Version 1 Introduction to Decision Analysis Chapter 1 Making Hard Decisions R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly
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Making Hard Decisions R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly Chapter 1 – Introduction to Decision Analysis Lecture Notes by: J.R. van Dorp and T.A. Mazzuchi http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/ Slide 2 of 11 COPYRIGHT © 2006 by GWU Draft: Version 1 Gypsy Moth and The Oda In the winter of 1985, the ODA grappled with the problem of gypsy moth infestation in Lane County in Western Oregon. Forest Industry representatives argued strongly for an aggressive eradication campaign using potent chemical insecticides. The ODA instead proposed a plan that involved spraying most of the affected area with BT ( Bacillus thuringiensis ) , a bacterial insecticide known to be (1) target-specific (that is, it does little damage to organisms other than moths), (2) ecologically safe , and (3) reasonable effective . As well as using BT, the ODA proposed spraying three smaller areas near the city of Eugene with the Chemical Spray Orthene . Although Orthene was registered as an acceptable insecticide for garden use, there was some doubt as to its ultimate ecological effects as well as its dangers to humans.
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Making Hard Decisions R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly Chapter 1 – Introduction to Decision Analysis Lecture Notes by: J.R. van Dorp and T.A. Mazzuchi http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/ Slide 3 of 11 COPYRIGHT © 2006 by GWU Draft: Version 1 Gypsy Moth and The Oda - Continued Forestry officials argued that the chemical insecticide was more potent than BT and was necessary to ensure eradication in the most heavily affected areas . Environmentalists argued that the potential danger from the chemical spray was too great to warrant its use. Some individuals argued that spraying would not help because the infestation already was so advanced that no program would be successful. Others argued that an aggressive spray program could solve the problem once and for all, but only if done immediately. Clearly in making its final Decision the ODA would have to deal with many issues.
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