{[ promptMessage ]}

Bookmark it

{[ promptMessage ]}

Chapter 3 - Chapter 3 Making Hard Decisions R T Clemen T...

Info icon This preview shows pages 1–5. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Making Hard Decisions R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly Chapter 3 – Structuring Decisions Lecture Notes by: J.R. van Dorp and T.A. Mazzuchi http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/ Slide 1 of 49 COPYRIGHT © 2006 by GWU Draft: Version 1 Structuring Decisions Chapter 3 Making Hard Decisions R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly
Image of page 1

Info icon This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Making Hard Decisions R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly Chapter 3 – Structuring Decisions Lecture Notes by: J.R. van Dorp and T.A. Mazzuchi http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/ Slide 2 of 49 COPYRIGHT © 2006 by GWU Draft: Version 1 Introduction How does one proceed structuring the DP? Suppose elements of Decision Problem (DP) are available, i.e.: Objectives that apply to the decision context Immediate decision and subsequent decision(s) Alternatives for each decision Uncertain elements (events) You know how to evaluate consequences STEP 1: Filter & Operationalize the Objectives Classify objectives as means or fundamental objectives Classify how to measure fundamental objectives
Image of page 2
Making Hard Decisions R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly Chapter 3 – Structuring Decisions Lecture Notes by: J.R. van Dorp and T.A. Mazzuchi http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/ Slide 3 of 49 COPYRIGHT © 2006 by GWU Draft: Version 1 Introduction STEP 2: Structure the elements in a logical framework Structure Logic and time sequence between decisions Structure Logic (dependence) between the uncertain events Structure time sequence of uncertain events related to the sequence of decisions Represent Logic by using Influence Diagrams or Decision Trees STEP 3: Fill in the Details, e.g.; Give precise (unambiguous) definitions of decisions & uncertain events Specify probability distributions for the uncertain events through a combination of data analysis & expert judgment. Specify precisely (unambiguous) how consequences are measured and formalize trade off between objectives.
Image of page 3

Info icon This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Making Hard Decisions R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly Chapter 3 – Structuring Decisions Lecture Notes by: J.R. van Dorp and T.A. Mazzuchi http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/ Slide 4 of 49 COPYRIGHT © 2006 by GWU Draft: Version 1 Introduction Comment with Respect to STEP 1: Identifying objectives is Creative Process 1. Develop a wish list. What do you want? What should you want? 2. Identify alternatives. What is the perfect alternative, a terrible alternative, some reasonable alternatives, what is good or bad about each? 3. Consider problems and shortcomings. What is wrong or right with your organization? What needs fixing? 4. Predict consequences. What has occurred that was good or bad? What might occur that you care about? 5. Identify goals, constraints, and guidelines. What are your aspirations? What limitations are placed on you? 6. Consider different perspectives. What would your competitor or constituency be concerned about? At some time in the future, what would concern you?
Image of page 4
Image of page 5
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

{[ snackBarMessage ]}

What students are saying

  • Left Quote Icon

    As a current student on this bumpy collegiate pathway, I stumbled upon Course Hero, where I can find study resources for nearly all my courses, get online help from tutors 24/7, and even share my old projects, papers, and lecture notes with other students.

    Student Picture

    Kiran Temple University Fox School of Business ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    I cannot even describe how much Course Hero helped me this summer. It’s truly become something I can always rely on and help me. In the end, I was not only able to survive summer classes, but I was able to thrive thanks to Course Hero.

    Student Picture

    Dana University of Pennsylvania ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    The ability to access any university’s resources through Course Hero proved invaluable in my case. I was behind on Tulane coursework and actually used UCLA’s materials to help me move forward and get everything together on time.

    Student Picture

    Jill Tulane University ‘16, Course Hero Intern