Energy and Climate Guest Lecture

Energy and Climate Guest Lecture - Energy & Climate:...

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Unformatted text preview: Energy & Climate: Flip Sides of the Same Crisis Richard W. Allmendinger Dept. of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences Cornell University http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/energy/ 1 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 World Population Since 0 AD 2 4 6 8 1 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Population (billions) 9.4 billion in 2050 6.7 billion today when I was born source: U.S. Census Bureau 2 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 Energy Consumption 1 9 6 8 7 2 4 Year 5,000 10,000 Consumption (MTOE) Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectricity 3x increase in ~45 years 3 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 Consumption Patterns by Region, 2005 North America S. & Cent America Europe & Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia PaciFc BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 oil natural gas coal hydro nuclear China coal consumption 20 40 60 80 100 % 4 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 Per capita Energy Consumption by Region A f r i c a s-P F C e n t l & S o u h m M d E N Region 10 20 30 40 50 BOE/person/year includes China & India 5 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 Oil Trade Flows, 2007 38.8 39.1 20.2 20.3 332.1 110.4 96.1 23.0 146.6 199.9 78.8 42.0 22.1 54.4 37.7 336.6 51.2 26.3 21.5 50.0 76.1 127.4 35.8 38.1 95.2 119.7 S. & Cent. America Europe & Eurasia Mexico Canada US Africa Asia Pacific Middle East 22.6 Venezuela Canada Middle East West Africa Mexico North Sea North Africa Russia The United States imports ~13.6 million barrels/day 6 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 Discovery & Production of Regular, Conventional Oil 1 9 4 5 6 7 8 2 Year 10 20 30 40 50 60 Billions of Barrels per year Production (Gb/year) Discoveries (Gb/year) 7 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 USGS Projected Oil Discoveries 1 9 4 5 6 7 8 2 Year 10 20 30 40 50 60 Billions of Barrels per year Discoveries (Gb/year) USGS Projection (Gb/year) c o n s u m p t i 8 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 1956 Hubbert Peak Oil Curve 9 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 OPEC Reported Reserves 1 9 8 5 2 Year 50 100 150 200 250 300 Reported Reserves (Gb) Abu Dhabi Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia Venezuela Source: Oil & Gas Journal Reserves based export quotas 10 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 Historical Oil Peaks by Country non-OPEC/FSU http://www.peakoil.ie / 11 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 Oil Production by Region Million barrels daily 82 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Africa Middle East Asia Pacific S. & Cent. America North America Europe & Eurasia 2 5 1 9 8 (M barrels/day; includes tar sands & oil shales) BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 20 40 60 80 12 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 Energy Security • Today, ~90% of all remaining conventional oil and gas reserves are controlled by state oil companies • Oil & gas increasingly are used as political and economic weapons 13 Tuesday, September 22, 2009 RWA 2006 How Much Energy Will We Need?...
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This note was uploaded on 02/10/2010 for the course ENGRI 1110 at Cornell.

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Energy and Climate Guest Lecture - Energy & Climate:...

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