Energy and Climate Guest Lecture

Energy and Climate Guest Lecture - Energy Climate Flip...

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Energy & Climate: Flip Sides of the Same Crisis Richard W. Allmendinger Dept. of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences Cornell University http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/energy/ 1 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 World Population Since 0 AD 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Population (billions) 9.4 billion in 2050 6.7 billion today when I was born source: U.S. Census Bureau 2 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 Energy Consumption 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Year 0 5,000 10,000 Consumption (MTOE) Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectricity 3x increase in ~45 years 3 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 Consumption Patterns by Region, 2005 North America S. & Cent America Europe & Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia Pacific BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 oil natural gas coal hydro nuclear China coal consumption 20 40 60 80 100 % 4 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 Per capita Energy Consumption by Region Africa Asia-Pacific Central & South America Middle East Eurasia North America Region 0 10 20 30 40 50 BOE/person/year includes China & India 5 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 Oil Trade Flows, 2007 38.8 39.1 20.2 20.3 332.1 110.4 96.1 23.0 146.6 199.9 78.8 42.0 22.1 54.4 37.7 336.6 51.2 26.3 21.5 50.0 76.1 127.4 35.8 38.1 95.2 119.7 S. & Cent. America Europe & Eurasia Mexico Canada US Africa Asia Pacific Middle East 22.6 Venezuela Canada Middle East West Africa Mexico North Sea North Africa Russia The United States imports ~13.6 million barrels/day 6 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 Discovery & Production of Regular, Conventional Oil 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Billions of Barrels per year Production (Gb/year) Discoveries (Gb/year) 7 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 USGS Projected Oil Discoveries 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Billions of Barrels per year Discoveries (Gb/year) USGS Projection (Gb/year) consumption 8 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 1956 Hubbert Peak Oil Curve 9 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 OPEC Reported Reserves 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Reported Reserves (Gb) Abu Dhabi Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia Venezuela Source: Oil & Gas Journal Reserves based export quotas 10 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 Historical Oil Peaks by Country non-OPEC/FSU http://www.peakoil.ie / 11 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 Oil Production by Region Million barrels daily 0 82 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Africa Middle East Asia Pacific S. & Cent. America North America Europe & Eurasia 2005 2000 1990 1995 1985 (M barrels/day; includes tar sands & oil shales) BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 20 40 60 80 12 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 Energy Security Today, ~90% of all remaining conventional oil and gas reserves are controlled by state oil companies Oil & gas increasingly are used as political and economic weapons 13 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 How Much Energy Will We Need? from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as cited in Lewis & Nocera (2006, PNAS); Nocera (2006, Daedalus) average living standard consistent with current energy use in Equatorial Guinea Function of Population, GDP, & Energy Efficiency in 2001 the world used ~13.5 TW in 2050 we will need, conservatively, ~27.6 TW 14 Tuesday, September 22, 2009
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RWA 2006 Energy Needs in 2050 0 10 20 30 2005 2050 Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Biofuels Wind
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