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Question #1
This question is based on the Hotel Occupancy example that starts on page 116 (slide
37) of your course packet.
You are given the following quarterly
data
for hotel occupancy. Answer the following
questions based on your calculations from Excel.
1.
The value of the coefficient on the linear term in a linear trend model is
0.005245865
2.
Based purely on the trend, the predicted value for the third quarter of 1993
would be
0.697072932
3.
Using the original data, the third quarter of 1993 is
4.580161729
percent
above
the predicted value for the series (when the prediction is based purely
upon trend).
4.
Fill in the following table of seasonal (quarterly) indices. For this problem,
round your answers to three decimal points (Notice that if you do this, no
normalization of seasonal averaged ratios is needed. In the next problem,
however, you will need to normalize the seasonal averaged ratios so they add
up to 4).
Quarter
Seasonal Index
Quarter 1
0.878
Quarter 2
1.076
Quarter 3
1.171
Quarter 4
0.875
5.
Once the seasonal indexes are computed, one way we use them is to smooth or
adjust the original time series so that they stand corrected for seasonal
fluctuations or imbalances.
The formula you need is very simple, and it is provided on slide 46 (page 118)
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 Spring '09
 PETRY

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