Unformatted text preview: 3. a) The probability if winning can be determined exactly (although the very low result doesn’t seem to deter people!) b) Usually they do NOT audit every item in every statement. Instead, likely using a relative probability only a subset is audited. If you want to cheat, you must face the fact that there is a probability you will be caught and realistically you can only estimate that probability subjectively, since the auditors are unlikely to reveal what model they use. c) The probability that a given individual will catch a disease can be estimated very accurately using relative frequencies. d) Consider a simple poll like “Will you vote for X or Y?” Since polltaking methodology usually takes great care to truly randomly select individuals, we can assume every person is equally likely to be selected. Thus you can calculate how accurate a poll is using this “fact”....
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 Spring '10
 Mr.Lushman
 Probability, Financial audit

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