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18_Thinking_6 - salience Lottery jackpot poor estimation of...

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Psychology 2: Introduction to Psychology Day 18 topics Decision making Problem solving Reasoning What would you do? Candy bar vs. a car Lottery jackpot Which college to attend Roulette wheel Trolley dilemma video Decision making Do we always make rational decisions? How do we make a good decision? Rational choice theory Expected value P (occurrence) x Value 20% of winning $500 — OR— 90% of winning $100? Caveat to this principle? Making good decisions Need FULL information i.e. car, college… Often difficult/time consuming to get! Not all factors are created equal Utilize an algorithm Systematic approach Æ correct Laborious! Is there an easier way? Heuristics Mental shortcuts Availability heuristic ‘K’ words Cigarette smoking Representative heuristic Engineers and lawyers Some influencing factors Framing effects Effectiveness vs. failure rate Sunk cost fallacy Tickets to the Opera Building a new factory
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Some explanatory variables Candy bar vs. a car
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Unformatted text preview: salience Lottery jackpot poor estimation of P Which college to attend weighting factors Roulette wheel poor estimation of P Trolley dilemma proximity, responsibility It’s complex, and context is important! Problem solving Means ‐ end analysis 1. Goal 2. Current state 3. Differences 4. Reduce part 3! Ill ‐ defined problem Strategy Method with means ‐ end Can one situation apply to another? If it worked there, it could work here! Analogical reasoning Fortress example Insight Reasoning and conclusions Reasoning Deductive reasoning General Æ specific All apples are fruit All fruit grows on trees All apples grow on trees Inductive reasoning Specific Æ general Apartment complex Cops Summary Decision ‐ making Algorithms and heuristics Problem solving Clear situation Systematic approach Analogical reasoning Reasoning Deductive & Inductive...
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