L19_ECE4001_Fall_200 - Lecture 19 Project Planning And Management Tools(Part 2 November 4 2008 J Stevenson Kenney 2008 1 Program Evaluation and

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J. Stevenson Kenney © 2008 1 Lecture 19 Project Planning And Management Tools (Part 2) November 4, 2008
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J. Stevenson Kenney © 2008 2 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) • Like CPM Chart, but is used to optimize schedules based on risk • Uses probability to assign risk according to “six-sigma” rules • Risk assessment often based on experience because little data is available
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J. Stevenson Kenney © 2008 3 PERT – Program Evaluation and Review Technique PERT charts add time estimates to CPM charts : o t Optimistic time estimate. The shortest time the project can be completed : m t Most likely time required to complete the activity (mode) : p t Pessimistic time estimate. The longest time to complete when everything goes wrong. Murphy’s Law
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J. Stevenson Kenney © 2008 4 Typical Activity Probability Distributions for PERT Charts Skewed-left Beta Distribution Skewed-right Beta Distribution Note that p ( t 0 ) = p ( t p ) = 0 for the Beta Distribution
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J. Stevenson Kenney © 2008 5 More on the Beta Distribution Probability density function Cumulative distribution function Where Γ is the gamma function and I x is the Bessel function of the second kind
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J. Stevenson Kenney © 2008 6 PERT Chart Network Diagrams Start Finish A 1-3-5 C 2-5-10 B 2-4-7 D 0-1-3 E 1-2-5 For each path: , , om p tt t Note: No time values for dummy paths
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J. Stevenson Kenney © 2008
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This note was uploaded on 02/20/2010 for the course ECE 4001 taught by Professor Frazier during the Spring '09 term at Georgia Institute of Technology.

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L19_ECE4001_Fall_200 - Lecture 19 Project Planning And Management Tools(Part 2 November 4 2008 J Stevenson Kenney 2008 1 Program Evaluation and

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