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Earthquake Hazards

Earthquake Hazards - Geol116...

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Geol 116 9/11/09 Earthquake Prediction and Mitigation   Loma Prieta, CA Earthquake- Oct. 17 1989 “World Series EQ” around a 7.2 – on a fault parallel  to San Andreas Fault - Most shaking occurs on soft mud then sand and gravel then bedrock according to  seismograph  Predicting Earthquakes Long-term forecasting vs. short-term prediction Long-term forecasting -to identify likely locations of future damaging quakes Short-term prediction -to provide reasonably reliable warning of impending earthquakes -Seems unlikely despite some successes (like in Haicheng) Earthquake Probability Where and how frequently an event is likely to occur and how large it is likely to be Understand tectonic environment Establish record of past events Forecasting Fault Movement Paleoseismology : study of prehistoric fault movements Expose fault by digging trench across it Study offset of sediment layers by fault movement Larger offset correlates to larger earthquake Forecasting Where Faults Will Move Seismic gaps : segments of active fault that lack historic (or recent) earthquakes- what has and  hasn’t broken More likely to be location of next large earthquake- for example Peru seismic gap Migrating earthquakes : earthquakes occur sequentially from one end of the fault to the other North Anatolian fault (strike slip fault) in Northern Turkey- earthquakes are moving west  Earthquake Frequency Estimate   recurrence interval   for earthquakes of various sizes Probability   that earthquake of a particular size will strike a particular region within a specified  time period
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Populations at Risk Probability of where and when an earthquake will strike used to construct  risk map Highest-risk U.S. areas include heavily populated coast of California 
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  • Spring '09
  • KRUGER
  • Standard, Earthquake prediction, fault movement, Earthquake Prediction Attempts, larger earthquake Forecasting

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