CBOI - Congressional Budget Office American Association for...

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Congressional Budget Office American Association for Budget and Program Analysis The Economic and Budget Outlook Douglas W. Elmendorf Director November 24, 2009
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Congressional Budget Office The Economic Outlook: “CBO’s economic forecast anticipates a relatively slow and tentative recovery.” CBO, Summer Update August 2009 2
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Unemployment Rate Percent Calendar Year 3 Actual Projected
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The GDP “Gap” Percentage of GDP Calendar Year 4 Actual Projected Without Stimulus Legislation
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Inflation Rate Percent Calendar Year 5 Actual Projected PCE Core PCE
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Congressional Budget Office The Short-Term Budget Outlook: “Over the coming years, as the economy improves and spending related to the financial rescue and the economic stimulus package abates, the deficit is projected to gradually shrink.” — CBO, Summer Update August 2009 6
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Federal Deficit or Surplus Percentage of GDP 7 Fiscal Year 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 Actual Baseline Projection
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Withdrawal of Fiscal Stimulus Fiscal Year Deficit as a Percentage of GDP 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Baseline Exclude the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
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The Effect of ARRA on Employment 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 1 2 3 4 High Estimate Low Estimate Millions of Jobs Calendar Year 9
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Options for Further Stimulus Create Jobs Directly Support Businesses Boost Demand Modify Mortgage and Housing Policy 10
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Reasons for Unemployment Percentage of Unemployed Persons 11 Calendar Year Job Losers Permanent Layoffs
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Job Finding and Separation Probabilities Percentage of Unemployed Percentage of Employed 12 Calendar Year Job Finding Rate Separation Rate (Right Scale)
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Congressional Budget Office The Medium-Term and Long-Term Budget Outlook: “The federal fiscal situation remains grim.” -- CBO, Summer Update August 2009 13
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CBOI - Congressional Budget Office American Association for...

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