1.12.10_Lec 1

1.12.10_Lec 1 - Biostatistics600...

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1 Biostatistics 600 Principles of Statistical Inference Haitao Chu, M.D., Ph.D. Research Associate Professor of Biostatistics Spring 2010 1 OBJECTIVES Use statistical reasoning to formulate scientific questions in quantitative term questions in quantitative terms Design and interpret graphical and tabular displays of statistical information Use basic probability models to describe the trends and random variation in public health data Use basic biostatistical methods for inference , including tests and confidence intervals, to draw inferences from data 2
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2 Lecture 1 Statistical Reasoning in Public Health 3 Public Health Lecture 1: Overview and Outline 1. The Scientific Method 2. Biostatistics • What is biostatistics? • Role of biostatistics in public health • Key ideas in statistical reasoning • Biostatistics and the scientific method 3. Biostatistics Paradigm 4. A Statistical Perspective on Causal Inference 5. Example of Scientific Evidence from Studies: Aceh Vitamin A Trial 4
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3 1. The Scientific Method Popper (1934): One model for the scientific method Competing hypotheses abou nature • Competing hypotheses about nature H 0 ,H 1 2 3 ,… . n Design a study and generate data Data are evidence in support of some of the hypotheses more than others Science is a process of eliminating hypotheses whose di ti i i t t ith b ti predictions are inconsistent with observation. Generating new hypotheses is a creative, not scientific, act. 5 1. The Scientific Method (cont d) • Kuhn (1970): A complementary perspective on science as a social process • Science - Conformity to accepted hypotheses: definitions, goals, methods - Puzzle solving “paradigm” • Scientific revolution - Old hypotheses challenged by new ones Science is like a soccer game of four-year olds Old hypotheses challenged by new ones - Changes to important questions, goals, methods 6
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4 2. Biostatistics Bio statistics application of statistical reasoning and methods to the solution of biological, medical and public health problems •B io statistics scientific use of quantitative information to describe or draw inferences about natural phenomena scientific accepted theory (ideas and - -- (ideas) practice; ethical standards - quantitative information -- data reflecting variation in populations - inference -- to conclude or surmise from evidence 7 2.1 Role of Biostatistics in Science (e.g., Public Health) 1. Generate hypotheses : ask questions. 2. Design and conduct studies to generate evidence; collect data. 3. Descriptive statistics : describe the distributions of observations.
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1.12.10_Lec 1 - Biostatistics600...

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