SP10 cs188 lecture 9 -- MDPs (2PP)

SP10 cs188 lecture 9 -- MDPs (2PP) - CS 188 Artificial...

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1 CS 188: Artificial Intelligence Spring 2010 Lecture 9: MDPs 2/16/2010 Pieter Abbeel – UC Berkeley Many slides adapted from Dan Klein 1 Announcements s Assignments s P2 due Thursday s We reserved Soda 271 on Wednesday Feb 17 from 4 to 6. One of the GSI's will periodically drop in to see if he can provide any clarifications/assistance. It's a great opportunity to meet other students who might still be looking for a partner. s Readings: s For MDPs / reinforcement learning, we’re using an online reading s s Lecture version is the standard for this class 2
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2 Example: Insurance s Consider the lottery [0.5,$1000; 0.5,$0] s What is its expected monetary value (EMV) ? ($500) s What is its certainty equivalent ? s Monetary value acceptable in lieu of lottery s $400 for most people s Difference of $100 is the insurance premium s There’s an insurance industry because people will pay to reduce their risk s If everyone were risk-neutral, no insurance needed! 3 Example: Insurance s Because people ascribe different utilities to different amounts of money, insurance agreements can increase both parties’ expected utility You own a car. Your lottery: L Y = [0.8, $0 ; 0.2, -$200] i.e., 20% chance of crashing You do not want -$200! U Y (L Y ) = 0.2*U Y (-$200) = -200 U Y (-$50) = -150 Amount Your Utility U Y $0 0 -$50 -150 -$200 -1000
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3 Example: Insurance s Because people ascribe different utilities to different amounts of money, insurance agreements can increase both parties’ expected utility You own a car. Your lottery: L Y = [0.8, $0 ; 0.2, -$200] i.e., 20% chance of crashing You do not want -$200! U Y (L Y ) = 0.2*U Y (-$200) = -200 U Y (-$50) = -150 Insurance company buys risk: L I = [0.8, $50 ; 0.2, -$150] i.e., $50 revenue + your L Y Insurer is risk-neutral: U(L)=U(EMV(L)) U I (L I ) = U(0.8*50 + 0.2*(-150)) = U($10) > U($0) Example: Human Rationality? s
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SP10 cs188 lecture 9 -- MDPs (2PP) - CS 188 Artificial...

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