Solution_ Homework4_Forecasting

Solution_ Homework4_Forecasting - 311 Operations Management...

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311 Operations Management Fall 2008 Solution: Homework # 4 – Forecasting 1. (30 points, 10 points each part) Question 11 on page 508 of the book. Demand MA(3) AD ES(0.3) AD 110 110 130 110 20 150 116 34 170 130 40 126.2 43.8 160 150 10 139.34 20.66 180 160 20 145.538 34.462 140 170 30 155.876 6 15.8766 130 160 30 151.113 6 21.11362 140 150 10 144.779 5 4.779534 MAD 23.3333 3 24.33647 Each forecast and AD column is worth 5 points. Moving average smoothing is better. (10 points) 2. (30 points, 10 points each part) Question 14 on page 508 of the book. There is some confusion in interpreting the initial forecast given in the book (F 1 ). Some students interpret that as the initial Level forecast (L 1 ) while others interpret that as the forecast and calculate the initial Level to be 30-1=29. Please give credit to both answers, Forecast using Level and Trend assuming L 1 =30 Demand ES(0.3) AD Level Trend Forecast AD 31 31 30 1 31 34 31 3 31 1 32 2 33 31.9 1.1 32.6 1.18 33.78 0.78 35 32.23 2.77 33.546 1.1098 34.6558 0.3442 37 33.061 3.939 34.759 1 1.1407 8 35.8998 1.10016 36 34.242 7 1.7573 36.229 9 1.2397 9 37.4697 1.46968 1
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38 34.769 9 3.2301 1 37.028
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Solution_ Homework4_Forecasting - 311 Operations Management...

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