311_Session10-08

311_Session10-08 - OperationsManagement...

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Operations Management Session 10:  Probability Concepts
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 Session 10 Operations Management 2 Today’s Class Game codes due. Please go to http://usc.responsive.net/lt/usc/start.html to  register. Course code:  usc. Individual code:  what you purchased from the bookstore. Today: Probability Review
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 Session 10 Operations Management 3 Quote of the day Without the element of uncertainty, the bringing off  of even, the greatest business triumph would be  dull, routine, and eminently unsatisfying.  J. Paul Getty  
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 Session 10 Operations Management 4 Risk and Uncertainty There are known knowns. These are things we  know that we know. There are known unknowns.  That is to say, there are things that we know we  don't know. But there are also unknown  unknowns. There are things we don't know we  don't know.  Donald Rumsfeld
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 Session 10 Operations Management 5 Random Experiment Random Experiment: An experiment in which the precise  outcome is not known ahead of time. The set of possibilities  however is known Examples:   Demand for blue blazers next month The value of a rolled die The waiting times of customers in the bank The waiting time for an ATT service person Tomorrow’s closing value of the NASDAQ The temperature in Los Angeles tomorrow
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 Session 10 Operations Management 6 Random Variable A random variable is the numerical value determined by the  outcome of a random experiment   A random variable can be discrete (i.e. takes on only a finite  set of values) or continuous   Examples:  The value on a rolled die is a discrete random variable The demand for blazers is a discrete random variable   The birth weight of a newborn baby is a continuous variable random variable
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 Session 10 Operations Management 7 Sample Space Sample space is the list of possible outcomes of an  experiment Examples: For a die, the sample space S is: {1,2,3,4,5,6} For the demand for blue blazers it is all possible realizations of the  demand. For example: {1000,1001,1002…,2000}  The waiting time in the bank is any number greater than or equal to 0.   This is a continuous random variable The waiting time for a bus at a bus stop is any number between 0  and 30 minutes.  This is a continuous random variable that is  bounded
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 Session 10 Operations Management 8 Event An event is a set of one or more outcomes of a  random experiment Examples:   Getting less than 5 by rolling the die: This event occurs if  the values observed are {1,2,3, or 4}
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This note was uploaded on 03/02/2010 for the course BUAD OPERATIONS taught by Professor Srinivasan during the Fall '08 term at USC.

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311_Session10-08 - OperationsManagement...

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